MLB Bet of the Day | May 24, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 72-61-4, +6.99u
RECAP: I just can’t believe that we got that play at plus-money, to be honest. The two Luis’ shoved yesterday, leading to a 5-0 win for the New York Yankees behind Luis Gil. Both of these pitchers are going to be gas for years to come, and we’ll continue to monitor Gil’s incredible, under-the-radar streak. We gain a unit on the day and are crawling back up towards ten units on the season. 

May 24h, 2024

We’ve got a good old fashioned WHALE X SHARPS X MITCH bet, where we’re literally all on the same side tonight in a game hosted by the Colorado Rockies, as they welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to town. 

The Phillies are throwing Cristopher Sanchez, who I have been on the right side of a couple of times this year - and he’s definitely been solid overall. His biggest downfall has been that he can get hit pretty hard in instances, and tonight is no different, as he faces a Rockies lineup that is average in the league in OPS over their last fifteen games and have been getting on base at a great clip at home. In fact, the Rockies lineup has been getting on base nearly 33% of the time at home.

And Sanchez has been an ace at home - but away, he’s allowing nearly two batters on per inning, and sports an ERA near six over his 18 away innings this season. He’s allowed eleven earned runs over that span against the Nationals, Reds, Angels, and Mets – all teams average or below average in OPS this season. The Rockies love hitting lefties, and that’s what they’re getting tonight. 

On the other side is Ty Blach, and if you’re wondering “who?”, exactly. The Phillies rank in the top three in offense this season and are getting on base 34% of the time against lefties on the road this season. In fact, over their last ten games, that number jumps to 35% against lefties - and they’re scoring over five runs per game in that span. Blach doesn’t walk anyone, but he doesn’t miss barrels, either - he’s worst in the league in xBA, Whiff %, and K% among starters. And while he’s fared pretty well at home this season, he’s literally only faced two HORRIBLE offensive teams in the Giants and the Marlins. 

This Colorado bullpen is also in the dumpster right now, with six arms available on zero days rest. And when the bullpen does come in, they have an ERA of 8.28 over their last three games against the OAKLAND ATHLETICS. 

This total is at 11, but to me, that’s a challenge. Let’s hammer the over and see the value in these teams soaring runs across the board on both sides. Heck, the Phillies might score 12 on their own, who knows. 

PICK: Philadelphia / Colorado over 11

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