MLB Bet of the Day | May 20, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 65-58-4, +3.64u
RECAP: We nearly doubled our profits on the season yesterday, going 3-1 in all of our MLB plays to cash nearly two units of profit on the day. This is thanks to an easy MLB of the Day winner, followed by wins on the total in KC and in Toronto. The only loss we had was in Houston, where the Brewers couldn’t find their footing thanks to a poor start. We gain nearly two units, and we keep the profit rolling. 

May 20th, 2024

There’s so much to believe in within the battle of the birds tonight, as the St. Louis Cardinals are taking on the Baltimore Orioles in the state of Missouri. Sonny Gray is pitching for the red birds while Dean Kremer is taking the bump for the orange ones. 

Kremer isn’t exactly a fireballer out there, but he’s shown a lot of promise throughout his year, sitting middle of the pack when it comes to most advanced stats. He’s started four games on the road this season, and he’s been absolutely dominant; in fact, Baltimore is just about the only place that he can’t pitch. He’s averaging a WHIP of .67 on the road and only allowed five earned runs over four games and over 24 innings pitched. 

Gray, on the other hand, has also been dominant within the confines of Busch Stadium, holding batters to a WHIP of .82; then Mitch, why aren’t we taking the under? Well, because Gray actually has a relatively high xBA against this Orioles lineup that he’s faced many times, and his exit velocity isn’t exactly where I’d like it to keep runs off of the board. 

Our big factor here today relies in the Sharp App Money Handles tool, where we’re seeing only 36% of the bets sit with the O’s, while there’s nearly 70% of the money handle with them. That’s a difference of 33%, and is sitting pretty for us fans of this tool. Plus, Sharp AI has this game as a 55% chance for the underdog O’s to hit and win, making this a play with a plethora of value tied to it.

Both of these teams are pretty darn good when it comes to Game One’s, so we turn to the OPS – which is also a tiebreaker, with the Orioles leading the Cardinals over the last fifteen games by .007 on OPS. Both of these teams are hitting their best too, and have been really solid over the past ten days. 

The fact of the matter is that all of the Sharp App signals a win for the Baltimore Orioles, who we’re getting at +115 today. That’s a steal for one of the best teams in the American League. 

PICK: Baltimore Orioles ML

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