MLB Bet of the Day | May 19, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 62-57-4, +1.98u
RECAP: Yesterday was yet another profitable day in the MLB of the Day streets, as we’ve climbed allllll the way out of our six-unit hole we dug ourselves and are back up two units on the season. This will hopefully continue to spiral upwards, as we’re now seeing some consistency in the MLB season with trends and insight. The total in Texas was a winner for me, while we dropped the total in Miami. Good luck today! 

May 19th, 2024

We’re praying on the downfall of the St. Louis Cardinals today, who love nothing more than for their series’ to be over. And that includes today’s game against the Boston Red Sox, who are looking to avoid getting swept by one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Matthew Liberatore was a touted prospect who hasn’t shown his ability to go deep into baseball games. In fact, he’s below average in nearly every major statistical category that we look at here at MLB of the Day (besides ground ball percentage, which is actually pretty solid) – the problem is that he hasn’t gone more than four innings in a start yet this year. The Red Sox have admittedly struggled against lefties this season, but this lefty isn’t going to be in the game long enough for it to matter, I feel. In fact, all of St. Louis’ best relievers (JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittridge) pitched yesterday, and this bullpen has an ERA near six over their last three games. 

Nick Pivetta is on the mound for the Red Sox, and he’s been much more successful in the advanced stats department. Through three starts on the road this season, he’s allowed six earned runs over fifteen innings, with nearly all of his runs coming against the red-hot Braves offense two weeks ago. He allowed just four hits over nearly six innings his last time out, and this St. Louis offense scores just under four runs per game in games after wins this season. 

The big kicker here, though, is that the Cardinals are the worst team in baseball in the third game of a series. This is obviously hyper-specific, but the data says this: the Cardinals are 2-11 this season in the third game of the series, and 0-6 this season when they’re coming off of a win in that final game of the series. 

The Sharp Report has St. Louis as a massive sportsbook liability, a category of the Sharp Report that has been a must-fade in the MLB. Between a struggling offense, a pitcher who hasn’t gone more than four innings, and a team that literally cannot win in the third game of a series, I believe that this line is mispriced. Let’s take the value on the away team to avoid the sweep. 

PICK: Boston Red Sox ML

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