MLB Bet of the Day | May 18, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 60-56-4, +1.03u
RECAP: What’s crazy is that this is just one of many MLB of the Day streaks that have been rocking throughout my time at Sharp, as we’ve gained eight units over the past ten plays that have been written about. We’re 9-1 in our last ten in the freebie streets, but we dropped two PRO plays yesterday to lose about a unit of profit on the day. We’re still positive in the MLB, and we’ve got to continue to ride this momentum into today’s packed late slate. 

May 18th, 2024

We’re going to be dishing out a plus-money play for the people today, and it’s a game between two of the most surprising talents in the league so far this season. The Royals are hosting Oakland today in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair between Ross Stripling and Seth Lugo.

Really, this article is designed to just give Seth Lugo his flowers; he has been one of the top ten best pitchers in the league this season among most categories, and clearly isn’t getting all of the love that he deserves. He’s one of the top value pitchers in the league right now, and over the past month, has a WHIP of .69 through three starts, among the best in the league. 

Lugo also averages nearly seven innings pitched per game over their last five, and he’s been a menace at home this season, allowing just nine runs over 30 innings of work; he’s even better on the road, but even when you consider his night splits, he’s still one of the most formidable pitchers in the league right now, no matter the situation. 

Stripling, on the other hand, has been bad luck all the way around. While he has actually pitched alright this season, my biggest gripe with him resides on the road, where he’s been abysmal at stopping runs. He has 13 earned runs over 21 innings of work this season on the road, and allows 1.48 WHIP. In night games, that WHIP even jumps to 1.57, meaning that you may as well just start with a batter on base throughout this game. 

And this Kansas City home offense is no joke. They’re averaging nearly six runs per game against righties and getting on base at a clip of 33.5% at home, meaning that they get on base with exceptional intensity. The A’s, despite their magic, are struggling on the road against righties like Lugo this season, hitting just .215 and scoring only about three runs per game. 

Both of these bullpens are rested and incredibly similar when it comes to the advanced metrics. But Bobby Witt and company are looking to push Oakland towards their seventh straight loss – six of which have lost by two or more. 
Let’s keep it rocking today. Kansas City by two for plus-money. 

PICK: Kansas City Royals -1.5

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