MLB Bet of the Day | May 17, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 59-54-4, +2.18u
RECAP: We’re on a tear now in the MLB of the Day streets, gaining another 1.99 units on all of the plays over the past two days. Tanner Houck and Taj Bradley didn’t disappoint, and the bullpens stayed true to form in Tampa, while we rode on the back of Ranger Suarez once again to cash Phillies -1.5 for plus-money. We’ve hit our last five MLB bets and are up over five units in the past week. Let’s continue it today. 

May 17th, 2024

PRO Subscribers got this pick before the freebies within the Sharp App did, and the line has already moved in favor of our play; but nevertheless, the juice is still worth it, as this could be a massacre tonight. 

The Chicago White Sox are heading east to New York to take on the Yankees in their own stadium, as they throw Mike Clevinger on the mound. Clevinger has been looking for a bounce-back year to get his name back in the rotation of routine starters this season, and it just hasn’t worked out in his favor; yet this year, he’s shown small glimpses of life through his two starts. He’s allowed four runs through six innings, but for a majority of his time in a White Sox uniform, he’s not looked great; so far this season he has a WHIP of 2.10. Literally throw two batters on base when he’s starting per inning. 

On the other side is the whacky-thrower Nestor Cortes, who has racked up quite the number of at-bats against this White Sox team over his career, ascending to one of the best pitcher v. team matchups we have in the MLB currently. Cortes is allowing an average of .189 over 60 plate appearances and a WEIGHTED EXPECTED ON-BASE PERCENTAGE OF .300. That’s insane. While he’s been hit hard at times this season, through four games at home, he’s allowing a WHIP of .060 and has allowed only five earned runs in Yankee Stadium over nearly 30 innings. 

While the Sox have definitely hit lefties better this season than righties, they’re still only hitting .237 this season against right-handed pitching, while the Yankees get on base 35% of the time against righties at home this season, leading to six runs per game. Plus, in game one’s this season, the White Sox are 2-12. They just can’t get off on the right foot. 

This game is chalky, and that’s fine – it’s a bet that should win, and through our advanced metrics, I see some really good value in taking the run line today. Let’s take the RL and see Nestor and the Yankees increase their lead today against the White Sox to at least two runs. 

PICK: New York Yankees -1.5

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