MLB Bet of the Day | May 14, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 54-54-4, -2.54u
RECAP: We absolutely gutted out a win in our MLB of the Day with two outs in the ninth inning, as the Phillies came back to beat the Mets in a game where the Mets had it firmly, and Edwin Diaz just couldn’t hold it together. Our loss, though, comes in with the Kansas City Royals, who just got overwhelmed by the Mariners and George Kirby last night, losing us .12 units on the day. 

May 14th, 2024

The Miami Marlins are in the second game of their away series with the Detroit Tigers, and this play rides mostly on the back of the lack of offense displayed between these two teams throughout the season so far. While both of these teams have turned it up as of late, there’s no reason not to believe that these starters should be able to weather the storm today. 

The home team is throwing Reese Olson, and I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: I am a Reese Olson believer. His advanced metrics are among the best in the league, with a ground ball percentage in the 85th percentile; nearly 54% of his batted balls are on the ground. In baseball, that is incredibly good. Plus, he’s just been dominant at home this season; through 13 innings, he’s allowed two earned runs and a WHIP of .98. And, he gets better as the game goes on; he hasn’t allowed a run after the sixth this season, despite pitching five innings in that stretch. That’s really impressive. 

Ryan Weathers is the pitcher on the other side, and he’s been… fine on the road this season. Through 27 innings pitched on the road, he sports a WHIP of 1.16 and has only allowed ten runs. And, get this: in their last five appearances against lefties this season, the Tigers are averaging 1.9 runs per game and hitting .190. They’ve really struggled against lefties as of late, and that’s what we’re eyeing today. 

Plus, Miami’s bats aren’t world-beaters either. Over their last ten games against righties, they’re scoring just over four runs per game, but hitting .253. Over their last fifteen games, Miami has a bottom-three OPS in the league, and they’ve been consistently battered by their opponents this season on the pitching side of things. 

We’ve got two semi-rested bullpens, and it should result in a lower-scoring game between these two teams, good enough to cash us and ride into another MLB of the Day streak. Let’s ride Weathers and Olson to the under, in a game most will stay away from. 

PICK: Miami / Detroit under 8.5

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!