MLB Bet of the Day | May 10, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 48-49-3, -2.83u
RECAP: While we nailed three straight MLB of the Days, we hit a bump in the road over the past two days, going 2-3-1 in all of our plays across the board to lose just over a unit in profit. This was a result of me picking my plays too early, I feel – waiting until closer to game time would have benefited me, as we picked two plays that the book had a liability on, which obviously isn’t the right way to go. It was a slip-up on my part. We learn from our mistakes today

May 10th, 2024

We’re going back to one of the most dangerous bets in sports, and it’s definitely a little chalky – but this has been a recipe that has won literally each of the past five times this pitcher has been on the mound. And he’s facing the worst team in the league. We must. 

The Philadelphia Phillies are in Miami tonight to take on the Marlins, a team that has been floundering (get it?) all season long. The Phillies have Ranger Suarez on the mound, a dominant pitcher who has been in early contention for the NL Cy Young – and it’s thanks to his stellar advanced metrics. He’s taking on a Marlins team that is bottom-five in nearly every statistical category including OPS. In his career, Suarez has held this Marlins lineup to an average of .200, and his stuff is just plain gross, as he’s in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity. There’s no starter in the league that gets hit softer. 

Trevor Rogers, who at one point I thought was going to be pretty darn good, is on the mound for the fish, and he’s been… the opposite. He gets hit extremely hard and there’s virtually no better team at finding barrels than the Phillies.

He’s been dominant in the past against the Phillies, but this is just a different year for him – he’s given up FOURTEEN RUNS across his last three outings. 
In each of Suarez’ past five starts, the Phils have won by two runs or more – but most of the time, it’s more like three or four. And if you’re worried about Suarez being on the road, keep this in mind – in his three road starts this season, he’s allowed three total earned runs, and has a WHIP of .48. Less than half a batter gets on base per inning. That doesn’t even make sense. 

My biggest concern is that the Phillies don’t mash lefties as well as they mash righties, but Rogers has shown that his stuff is incredibly weak. The Phillies are still getting on base at a 34% clip on the road against lefties, and tonight, they’ll be able to cash in.

Let’s once again hammer the Phillies by two runs or more, as they should mash tonight, and fading the Marlins is always a good thing. 

PICK: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

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