MLB Bet of the Day | March 29th, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 1-3, -1.68u
RECAP: Opening Day served as a kick in the teeth over on the MLB world, as the Rays were roughed up from the very beginning and couldn’t hit the ball. We were saved from a disastrous day by the Boston Red Sox being huge underdog winners, and we start our MLB campaign in the hole for the 2024 season. We’ve been here before, and we’ll dig out quite easily – and here’s to hoping that today is that day to dig out! 

March 29th, 2024

In another loaded MLB slate, we’ve already seen two games today where a bullpen fell apart and the benches cleared, so we’re in for a great night. It’s also a late night with plenty of late games, but we’re going to zoom in on a game that’ll probably be done before those begin.

The Miami Marlins host the Pittsburgh Pirates in game two of their series, where they went to extra innings yesterday in a crazy game. I watched that game almost all the way through and it was just a ton of fun, and I’m expecting some fireworks tonight as well. 

Our Sharp Money Handles tool is keen on this play, hitting 31% of the bets placed and a crazy 87% of the money handle that we’re seeing. That’s a difference of 56%, and even though it’s a high total, we’re going to be watching balls fly today (hopefully) from these two iffy pitchers. 

AJ Puk is in line to make his first start of his career after years of being a primary reliever. Last season, he carried an ERA over 7 against the Pirates, and he hasn’t really been considered a starter for a long time, which might mean a bullpen game. Puk was effective last season, but there’s very little indication that he’ll be able to show and sustain his success that he had, because most of his outings came in just one inning of work. Tonight, he’s going to be expected to go 4+ innings. 

The problem is that they don’t have a bullpen after using so many arms yesterday, and the Pirates aren’t exactly throwing an ace on the mound, either. Last season, Pirates SP Martin Perez, who was with the Rangers, carried a 1.51 WHIP on the road, and he has struggled against these Marlins hitters in his career. Through 50 plate appearances against these hitters, he boasts an xBA of .301 and he can’t strike anyone out. Expect fireworks on both sides of the plate tonight in Miami. 

Heck, even Statsational has his strikeouts under as one of his best props of the day. Over their last 120 games (which is a huge sample size), the over has a 12% ROI and an 11% ROI, respectively, for both teams. Let’s take the over 8.5 at plus-money, and see the ball fly tonight in what should be a competitive game! 

PICK: Pittsburgh/Miami over 8.5

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!