MLB Bet of the Day | June 8, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 88-89-4, -5.96u
RECAP: A 1-2 day leads to a loss of about .5 units, as we lose on both of our straight bets. Neither game was even particularly close, as the overs in both New York and in Miami never seemed to gain any steam whatsoever. We salvage our day through a team runs parlay, which have hit two days in a row to give us some leeway. We’ve got a game in London and a massive slate of value today, let’s get it! 

June 8th, 2024

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? Sharp App Pro Subscribers have had this play from me since last night, but this is absolutely my favorite play of the day, and it’s the time that we’ve cashed most recently. We’re going to keep hammering the White Sox, especially when their ace is nowhere to be found. 

The Sox are throwing Nick Nastrini, and I encourage readers to go check out his advanced stats, because they are atrocious. Over his last five games started, the White Sox have lost those starts by more than two literally every time, and he’s been absolutely abysmal in pretty much every category that you’d like to see a pitcher good at. He has an expected ERA just a tad under 8… that’s all that you need to know. 

I am the president of the Brayan Bello fan club, and we’re running out of room to welcome more members. He thrives during day games and this offense is one of the worst that he’ll face today, especially with Luis Robert on the bench. He induces some of the most ground balls in the league and the advanced stats actually say that he’s been unlucky this season, with an xERA lower than his real ERA. 

To add it all up, the White Sox are averaging an OBP of 27% against righties over their last ten games, and the Red Sox are getting on base much more frequently at 34% – and they’re averaging over five runs per game in that stretch. I think that they should absolutely obliterate Nastrini today. 

We’re taking the Red Sox on the run line today as a precaution, but I actually like them up to -2.5 as well; Bello’s exit velocity is down and the weather in Chicago isn’t supposed to be the best today, leading to a hope that not only does the ball stay in the ballpark for Bello, but he can stay in the game for a long time. 

The Red Sox need a bounce back after yesterday’s embarrassment, and they should be able to start a brand new losing streak for the team on the South Side of Chicago. Red Sox by two. 

PICK: Boston Red Sox -1.5

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