MLB Bet of the Day | June 5, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 84-82-4, -2.67u
RECAP: One step forward and one step back over the last two days at MLB of the Day, as we’ve hit an 0-2 day. Sometimes it happens when you’re way off and the models/trends you use just don’t hit like they’re supposed to – and that’s alright. The Royals also gave up a massive lead to leave us in the dumps, and we’re going to look to rebound in today’s massive slate. 

June 5th, 2024

We’re once again looking at a total for the MLB of the Day, which I know is not the absolute favorite thing to do - but it’s a bet with a ton of value and Sharp AI hits it on the head.

According to Sharp AI, the books have this line exactly right at O/U 10 runs in the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Boston Red Sox today. This means that Sharp AI is predicting a super high total, and that’s why we’re taking the over in this game. 

It’s also because Nick Pivetta is playing the Braves at home today, and he’s been wishy-washy at best. He’s allowed nine runs on fourteen home innings this season and is sporting a WHIP of 1.33, something that this Atlanta offense should be able to capitalize on. Vegas predicts that there will be about 5.5 runs scored from the Braves today, but I think that total may even creep higher, considering that Pivetta gets barrelled in the bottom 6% in the league. 

While the Braves have struggled over their last seven games to barrel the ball effectively, today presents a great opportunity to get back on track. They have seven batters in their starting lineup getting on base more than 30% of the time against righties this season, and that should continue today.

We haven’t even mentioned the Braves starting pitcher yet, who has only one start under his belt so far this season. He was hit hard in that start, despite getting out of it with three earned runs over five innings. Boston gets on base 30% of the time against righties this season, and that’s with their horrendous flyball percentage. Want to know who really struggles to get the ball on the ground? Spencer Schwellenbach, who is starting for the Braves today. It’s a matchup made in heaven for these Boston hitters like Rafael Devers and Enmanuel Valdez. 

Let’s take the over in this day game in Boston today with the wind blowing out to right-center. It should make for some fireworks here during the day! 

PICK: Atlanta / Boston over 10

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