MLB Bet of the Day | June 4, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 84-80-4, -0.67u
RECAP: And just like that, we are back to even on the MLB season with a sweep of a day to really start to move June in the right direction. We had a winner in our MLB of the Day, but then also snagged Houston -1.5 (.5u) and the total in Colorado to gain just over two units on the day. It was a good one, but we need to build the momentum, starting over again today. 

June 4th, 2024

Any time we’re looking at a total that is at 7 / 7.5, it scares me so much to take the under in that game. But that’s the case today, as we’re going to lock into two starting pitchers who should be absolutely dominant today. 

The Tampa Bay Rays are in Miami taking on the Marlins today in the opening game of their interleague series. Tampa will be sending out trade piece Ryan Pepiot while the Marlins are throwing their ace, Jesus Luzardo. 

Luzardo looked human before his injury, but since coming back from his injury, he’s been anything but. He’s allowed only two earned runs over twenty innings at home in May, and I hate doing this, but he was absolutely dominant in June last season, boasting a WHIP of .76 during this month. He’s been lights out at home, and this bullpen is rested and has been pretty solid this season. Luzardo is back. 

On the other side, Ryan Pepiot shut out this Marlins team last season, and he’ll be looking to build on that again today. Pepiot hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in each of his last five games, and has an xBA in the 91st percentile this season. He sits at an xERA under three this season and has been dominant on the road, albeit only two road starts to his name so far this season. 

What’s telling though is these offenses. Over their last ten games, neither of these teams is averaging above 3.5 runs per game, and Miami is only getting on base 29% of the time. They struggle in their own ballpark too, getting on base only 26% of the time this season at home – and the Rays aren’t much better, getting on base an average of 30% of the time. The Rays particularly struggle on the road against – you guessed it – lefties, where they get on base 26% of the time and are hitting .205. This is one of the worst teams in the league against left-handed pitching, with every single usual starter under 33% OBP. 

The combination of the pitching and the hitting makes me lean under in this scenario, as Pepiot and Luzardo should be able to keep these anemic offenses at bay. I’ll pay good money to see either of these teams put up runs against these pitchers. Under. 

PICK: Tampa Bay / Miami under 7.5

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