MLB Bet of the Day | June 30, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 123-126-5, -3.33u
RECAP: We enter the last day of June in the positive, as we go 2-1 on the day in the MLB. Our Team Total Parlay cashed easily and our PRO Subscriber bet cashed in a sweat, but our MLB of the Day unfortunately stopped the sweep as the Rockies let the White Sox win three straight games. I said I would pay to see it happen, and it happened. Good luck today! 

June 30th, 2024

On the final day of the month, we go to a bet that has made us quite a bit of coin this season, and it’s the Ranger Suarez -1.5 bets, and today, he’s got one of the most inconsistent teams in the league in his sights on this Sunday at home.

The Marlins genuinely struggle away from home, but have made a series out of this depleted Phillies lineup without two of their boppers. Ranger Suarez has looked suspect in his previous two starts, allowing five earned runs over 12 innings pitched, and the Phillies bullpen has let him down twice. That being said, he has a .174 BA against this Marlins team, and ranks near the top of the league in essentially every single category in the pitching world of advanced metrics. While he’s had hiccups in day games this season, he should be able to keep this Marlins offense at bay.

Yonny Chirinos is on the mound for the Marlins, and he’s been actually pretty good – but he hasn’t faced a ballpark like CBP. This season, he’s allowed an xBA of .197 and only three runs through ten innings of work, but regression to the mean is coming, especially in the fourth game of a series that the Phillies do not want to lose. 

In their last ten games, Miami is getting on base just 24% of the time, the worst in the league; they’re pushing across just over two runs per game, and hitting a whopping .203. Ranger Suarez should be able to mold those horrendous averages to a minimum today, considering that his home ballpark is truly his bread and butter.

Finally, the Phillies offense hasn’t been the same without Harper and Schwarber, and it’s understandable why; yet, they’re still averaging six runs per game at home against righties, and that’s not ALL those two. Players like Bryson Stott, who is excelling in the leadoff position and the return of Trea Turner both mark that this offense can still catch fire, and that could start today when the Phils even the series. If the Phillies are going to win (and Sharp AI gives them a 77% chance today), they should win by more than one. Phils by two. 

PICK: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

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