MLB Bet of the Day | June 3, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 81-80-4, -2.88u
RECAP: It just hasn’t been our day for a couple of days now, as we’ve lost about seven units on the MLB season over the past week and a half. We hit a plus-money winner in the Phillies, but then floundered on the totals in the MLB that we bet on. It’s been a rough stretch, but after a day off, we feel rejuvenated to get the winning streak back up and running. 

June 3rd, 2024

The Los Angeles Angels are welcoming the San Diego Padres to town today in a game where the Padres are returning all the way to California from Kansas City the day before. Tyler Anderson will be on the bump today to face knuckleballer Matt Waldron, and we’re taking a look at the total today. 

The hype around Tyler Anderson is very much real, and as he has been absolutely lights out over his last five games, and he’s been really great to start the season. In fact, he has among the lowest xERA in his career, and he’s averaging over six innings pitched in his last five games; at home this season, he’s never allowed more than three earned runs, and has a WHIP of 1.28, which is actually really solid considering Angel Stadium’s difficulty to pitch in. His biggest strength has been painting corners this season, and his wOBA on corners is absolutely insane. 

For less technical analysis, we’ll turn to Matt Waldron, the knuckleballer who hasn’t gotten hit hard much at all this season; in fact, he’s in the top tenth percentile in hard hit percentage and in the top 20th percentile in average exit velocity. He’s been average on the road this season, and will bring his 1.26 WHIP in night games against this bottom-seven OPS team in the Angels. 

The Angels are averaging two runs per game against righties at home over their last ten games, and are hitting .169 in those contests. If we span those numbers season-wide, they get a little better, but they’ve been down in the dumps offensively, losing five straight. 

The Padres aren’t much better, ranking in the bottom three in OPS over their last fifteen games. They’re pushing only four runs per game across against lefties this season in away games and are hitting a measly .253 this season on the road against left-handed pitching.

Look for these two starters to settle in today and give their bullpens a much needed break, as we’re going to look to the under 8.5 in this game, which you can get around -110/-115 right now at most books. Hammer it, and let’s get back in the winning column tonight. 

PICK: San Diego / Los Angeles under 8.5

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!