MLB Bet of the Day | June 29, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 121-125-5, -3.76u
RECAP: We had just as bad of a day as you could imagine yesterday, getting rocked in our MLB of the Day and losing our other two plays for a loss of 2.5 units on the day, and catapulting us back into the negatives in the MLB streets for the season. The Angels and Tigers couldn’t hit these abysmal pitchers, and that resulted in quite a horrid day for us. We’ll bounce back today in a massive slate! 

June 29th, 2024

I am betting one unit on the Colorado Rockies to win a baseball game, which seems like a tall task; that being said, I love this pitching matchup, and my model has this as more than just a toss-up.

Sharp AI projects this game as a higher than 70% chance for the Rockies to win this game, and I agree with that metric; Cal Quantrill is on the mound for the Rockies, and he’s been utterly dominant as a pitcher this season, despite pitching in the wretched Coors Field for most of his starts. Quantrill on the road this season has a WHIP of 1.24 and has actually shown to be unlucky against this White Sox lineup in the past; his xBA is actually fifty points lower than his actual BA against this lineup. He’s got his best stuff this season, and it’ll show when facing this lowly White Sox offense.

Cannon is on the mound for the Sox, and I actually really like his stuff; he’s shown that he can be effective in spurts, but his regression is going to continue today. He has one of the worst xBA in the league and teams are starting to catch up to him, as evidenced by his last start in Detroit. While I think he has good stuff, and this Rockies offense isn’t anything to write home about, I trust this lineup against Cannon more than I trust the Sox against Quantrill.

As well, the Rockies have just plain been hotter. They’re scoring over four runs per game in their last ten games, and are getting on base 29% of the time. These numbers are not good, don’t get me wrong; but compare them to the averages of the Sox, and this is a World Series team. The White Sox have the worst OPS in the league over their last ten games, are scoring less than two runs per game during that stretch, and getting on base only 25% of the time – those are league-worst numbers across the board. 

They got a win yesterday against a lowly pitcher in Dakota Hudson (and Drew Thorpe shoves, too) – but the White Sox winning three games in a row is almost unimaginable. I’ll pay to see it happen. Michael Toglia, Ryan McMahon and company can turn it on today and grab the win. 

PICK: Colorado Rockies ML

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