MLB Bet of the Day | June 28, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 121-122-5, -1.26u
RECAP: Yesterday we go 1-1 on the day to lead us to a day that was relatively even considering – it was a super busy day for me, so I wasn’t able to get everything out that I would have wanted. Nevertheless, our MLB of the Day misses but our Team Total Parlay hits easily, and we’re on to a loaded, late Friday slate with lots on the line and a lot of competitive series’. 

June 28th, 2024

Today we’re going to take a look at what could be (arguably) the most competitive series of the weekend, but may not be a series that everyone has their eyes on in Los Angeles as the Angels are hosting the Detroit Tigers in the second game of their series. Zach Plesac is taking on Kenta Maeda, both of which have been absolutely absurdly bad this season.

Plesac was added onto the starting roster due to injuries to the starters of the Angels, and he hasn’t filled that hole well yet. He’s allowed nine earned runs over his last two starts, and he’s averaging a run per inning that he’s pitched. While this Detroit offense doesn’t scare me (and certainly didn’t show up yesterday to support Jack Flaherty), what does intrigue me is the opportunity here. Over their past ten games, this Detroit offense has been abysmal, hitting just .224 and getting on base just 27% of the time; but the sharps are seeing something that we aren’t.

When you look deeper into the analytics, we’re seeing why we have at least two sharps on this total tonight. Plesac is actually supposed to be worse than he is right now, with his xERA above his 8+ current ERA, and that’s bound to make any team look good. He’s allowing the most fly balls in his career, and when players like Riley Greene and Matt Vierling can elevate the ball, it generally means good things. 

Kenta Maeda is a pitcher that most bettors love to fade, but we’re going to hope that he just can’t keep the ball in the ballpark tonight. Taylor Ward and company have been really good as of late, and are getting on base 31% of the time at home against right-handed pitching. Maeda recently allowed a terrible White Sox team to put up five runs on him, and the Angels are 16-15-1 on the over when they’re the home underdogs. That isn’t super significant, but the trends are favoring the over there. It could go either way.

I know that most bettors would be expecting an over here, but let’s grab this before it continues to climb. The sharps are on it, and that’s good enough for me. Let’s take the over. 

PICK: Detroit / Los Angeles over 9

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