MLB Bet of the Day | June 27, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 120-121-5, -1.30u
RECAP: Over the past two days, we’ve gained some units back on our overall record, including a late-night parlay to secure us a limiting of the damage that soccer caused yesterday. We have an unusually big slate for the MLB on this Thursday, as most of these games are in the afternoon or evening. Let’s dive right in!  

June 27th, 2024

The NL Central has been a breeding ground for great picks over the last month or so, so we’re sticking with it as the Cardinals welcome the Reds to St. Louis for the first game of their series. We’ve seen some significant movement this morning on the total in this game, and we’ve been able to pounce on it before it moves into an area that it wouldn’t be viable to bet anymore. There are a total of two sharps already on this play, and I’m adding a bet to it on the coaches’ side. 

Andrew Abbott will be taking on Miles Mikolas today, as both pitchers have been unders machines as of late in this season. Mikolas, who we bet on the last time he pitched at MLB of the Day, came back with a win against the Giants; but, it’s the only over in the last five games that he’s pitched that’s hit the over, and it was mostly because the Giants couldn’t stop the Cards’ offense. Mikolas is having a fantastic June, where he’s allowed a WHIP of just .75 this month and he’s allowed over three earned runs just once in his past 11 starts. 

Abbott has been on a similar trajectory, boasting one of the best hard hit percentages in the league this season and has been really consistent at limiting hard contact over this past month. He’s allowed nine runs over 21 innings, but three out of his four starts have been in either Coors or Great American. Busch Stadium doesn’t rear itself well to hard contact, and while Abbott has struggled against the Cards in his career (and earlier this year), I usually favor the pitcher in the second time that they see a lineup. 

Plus, these lineups have not been red hot over their last few. After two games yesterday, this Cardinals lineup has to be reeling after scoring only six runs over two games in their double-header. The Reds have been really slow during the month of June, getting on base only 28% of the time and pushing across just an average of 3.7 runs per game in their last ten games. 

These lineups are tired and these starters have been able to enforce themselves over the last few starts, so we’re going to take the under and align with the sharps. 

PICK: Cincinnati / St. Louis under 8.5

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!