MLB Bet of the Day | June 23, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 112-112-4, -2.10u
RECAP: We crawl back to even on the MLB season as we go 3-2 yesterday on our plays, including two plays that were for one unit. We’re still being selective with our unit amounts as we climb back to success, but the Cardinals won outright after exploding in the later innings, and our Team Total Parlay cashed after like, three innings. We lost our other two plays by one run to barely miss a sweep! On to today! 

June 23rd, 2024

We’re riding on the coattails of Nick Lodolo once again as the Reds take on the Red Sox in the final game of this series in which each team has won one game. The Red Sox are starting opener Zack Kelly, and will most likely move towards either Chase Anderson or Brad Keller after Kelly gives them an inning or two. Sharp AI projects this game to fall one run under the current total at most sports books, so that’s what we’re going to be looking at today. 

Lodolo is 4-0-1 on unders in his past five games, and is simply the king of the unders so far in this season. He’s allowed 12 runs over his 33 innings pitched at home this season, and his June has been immaculate,with a WHIP of 1.12 during this month through three starts. This Red Sox offense is pretty hot as of late, with Boston putting up nearly six runs per game over their last ten games; yet, most sportsbooks have them only scoring around 3.5 runs today (via the odds on over/under props). That’s a significant disparity. 

The Reds offense is the biggest reason why we’re doubting them today, as we don’t know a ton about the Red Sox gameplan today. If we’re to look at historical data, Kelly will likely pitch one or two innings to open the game, and the duo of Brad Keller and Chase Anderson will take the ball for the rest of the matchup. If they go Kelly and Keller, these two have been lights out over their last three starts, and this Reds offense doesn’t do well with bullpens. In fact, this available bullpen for the Red Sox has an ERA around 3.40 and a WHIP just over one. 

But this Reds offense has to pick it up if they’re going to compete, and Sundays usually mean slow offenses. The Reds are averaging just three runs per game over their last ten games, despite many of those games coming at their home ballpark. They’re 9-1 over the last ten games when it comes to the team total under, and the total is falling as we speak in the books. That means that we have to get to this quickly.

Between the Reds’ starter, the Reds’ offense, and the stellar bullpen of the Red Sox (which isn’t entirely rested, but they’ll be alright), we’re going to hammer the under in this game for .5u. Sundays can be scary, so we’re going a little lighter on the load today; but the under seems primed for the win. 

PICK: Boston / Cincinnati under 9.5

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