MLB Bet of the Day | June 22, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 109-110-4, -3.27u
RECAP: For the first time in the history of MLB of the Day, we have a negative record after a significant amount of time. We get our hearts ripped out twice yesterday, in what could have been a 3-1 day quickly turned to a 1-3 day as we get killed on two plays by one run. The Phillies nearly came back, while our Team Total Parlay lost by one run, thanks to the Red Sox not making much of an effort in Cincinnati. On to today! 

June 22nd, 2024

While on paper, this game is the definition of a toss-up – but if we’re looking at this game truly being a toss-up, riding with the home team and the hotter pitching may be the path to success.

The Giants are heading to St. Louis to take on the Cardinals in, technically, the second game of their series after playing the first game of the series in Birmingham, Alabama. Miles Mikolas is taking on the former redbird in Jordan Hicks in his return to St. Louis, the team that drafted him.

Mikolas has quietly been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league in June. Listen to this: throughout his first three starts of the month, he has a WHIP of .52 and has allowed only three runs over 21 frames pitched. All three games have been low-scoring affairs, and with this bullpen ready to go, I trust the top end of STL much more than the top end of SF. 

Hicks has had an up and down season, but has struggled when it comes to baserunners over his last few starts. He’s allowing nearly two baserunners per inning (1.80 WHIP) and has been more of a struggle on the road than at home this season. While he’s still been overall dominant, he’s due for some major regression, with his xERA more than a point higher than his actual ERA. He’s due for some regression and it could come today against an offense that has been seeing the ball well at home all season long. 

The Cards and the Giants are just about as even as it can get when it comes to offense, but my models show that the Giants could struggle with Mikolas’ command. The Cardinals offense has quietly come to life, with five batters with an xwOBA above .320; and at home, they’re hitting .244 and getting on base 31.8% of the time. 

While those numbers are nearly identical on the road for the Giants, the home team has won three straight games with umpire Adrian Johnson behind the plate, and in a toss-up game, that can be crucial. Let’s take the home team today at even money, and see Mikolas continue his June success. 

PICK: St. Louis Cardinals ML 

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