MLB Bet of the Day | June 21, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 108-107-4, -2.19u
RECAP: Especially when you’re down in the dumps in a specific sport, bankroll management is so key – as we go 0-3 yesterday for a loss of .5 units. The baseball gods just haven’t been kind to us, our models, or our trends that we follow, and that’s alright, as it’s a very long season. The totals we hammered went opposite, and the Brewers lost on a walk-off home run last night. Yeesh. Good luck today! 

June 21st, 2024

While I don’t normally follow the Whale on the Sharp Report, we’ve got to get to this line early before it balloons up too high for my liking. I got this play at -135, and I would be cool playing it up to -145. 

The Phillies are welcoming the Diamondbacks to town, and this is a matchup that’s expected to be high-scoring and should be really exciting, as it’s a rematch of the NLCS. The Diamondbacks ended up winning that game, but I believe that the Phillies take home game one tonight. 

Sharp AI gives the home team a 55% chance to win here today, and that’s good enough for me, as I have them winning by a little more than a run. The Diamondbacks are the among the worst teams in the league when it comes to the first game of a series, and the Phillies are literally the best. The Phillies, coming off of a loss, are 10-2 this season in the first game of the series, while Arizona is is 7-9 coming off of a win in the previous game. 

Both teams had off yesterday, so we shift to the pitching matchup between Taijuan Walker and Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery is having one of the roughest years in his career, and hasn’t faced this lineup too often in his career; over his four away starts this season, he’s allowing 1.42 batters on base per inning. Walker, who is also a big-run concern, has been allowing just underneath that, at 1.32. He’s been consistently allowing 2-3 runs per game, which is actually pretty good for a tough home ballpark.

As well, both of these teams are hitting the ball really well over the past ten games. Arizona is actually the hotter offense, getting on base nearly 37% of the time over the past ten; Philadelphia is right underneath them at 34%. 

Because these two offenses are both hot, we have to fall on consistency. Bryce Harper and the Phillies have been the more consistent series-opener team, and when the Phillies are playing a team on equal rest, they win by an average of 1.2 runs per game. On one day of rest, the Diamondbacks lose by an average of two runs per game. Take the Phillies. 

PICK: Philadelphia Phillies ML

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!