MLB Bet of the Day | June 20, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 108-104-4, -1.69u
RECAP: We go 1-2 yesterday, but thanks to our unit sizes, we still finish literally even on the day. Throughout the day, our MLB of the Day bet kept going in the opposite direction,with the public nailing the under… good thing we were on the right side of history, as the over seemed destined from the start of the game, and it didn’t let up. These offenses are for real! We lost our other two plays, and we’re looking to make it five straight plays of the day. 

June 20th, 2024

I know that these two offenses can turn it on at any point throughout a game, but we’re going to look deeply at the total between the Yankees and the visiting Orioles in a game that’s going to be dictated by the starting pitching of these two teams. 

The Yankees are throwing Luis Gil today, an under-the-radar ace that has filled into this Yankees rotation so nicely. He’s dominated offenses and he’s a big reason why our Sharp AI has this game at an under of 8, because of his dominance. The over is 3-1-1 over his last five games and the Yankees are 5-0 during those games, because he’s been able to hold opposing offenses to under three earned runs during his stretches. 

On the other side is Cole Irvin, another underrated arm for the Orioles who has filled the rotation nicely throughout his start this season. He’s matched Gil’s starting pitching standards, not allowing more than three earned runs in a start in his last five games, and while these offenses have been red-hot over their last ten games, it stops today in New York. 

The umpire in this game is Ryan Additon; I’m not a huge umpire guy to dictate games, but his statistics are simply undeniable. He’s 11-4 when it comes to the under in games this season, and he averages just over seven runs per game in games that he’s behind the plate. I don’t know how, or I don’t know why, but it’s a trend that is simply unable to be denied when considering betting on this game. 

In the last ten games between these two teams, when there’s been an O/U of  8.5, it’s hit the under nearly every time besides once; that means that these offenses may not shut down completely, but it could be a low-scoring game. These AL East battles can be really, really low-scoring and tight, and I expect the same today in the afternoon game between two pitchers who have been lighting it up throughout this season so far. Let’s take the under, and hammer five straight freebies. 

PICK: Baltimore / New York under 8.5

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