MLB Bet of the Day | June 18, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 104-100-4, -2.30u
RECAP: We go 2-1 including a unit banger on our MLB of the Day, which I thought was dead in the water… until what I had talked about happened, and Spiers and Skenes eased themselves into a groove. We also hit the Cardinals F5 ML as well on the Pro side of things, while missing out on a team total runs parlay. We’ve got a massive slate with every team playing in like, a three hour time slot – going to be nuts. Here we go! 

June 18th, 2024

I can’t stay away from the Cincinnati Reds – it’s like a plague that’s overcome me and I can’t stop betting on them. This will be the third straight day with an MLB of the Day involving Cinci in some way, shape, or form – but today, it’s for them to win the game. 

On the earliest run of the Sharp Report, the Pittsburgh Pirates are on the “fade” portion of the report, in the Sportsbook Liabilities section. This means that I immediately turn my head to Cincinnati, who are favored (at 54%) to win this game, per Sharp AI, and it isn’t unwarranted. 

Nick Lodolo has propelled the Reds to wins in eight of his first ten starts of the season, and has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season overall. He’s a road monster, with a WHIP of .77 throughout his four road starts. He’s in the top fifty percentile in nearly every important advanced statistical category this season, and he’s having the absolute best season of any Reds starter. He gives them a great chance to win every time out. 

Bailey Falter is on the opposing side, and he’s throwing batting practice to Reds hitters throughout his career. Reds batters have a .400 BA against him through 35 appearances, and have dominated him his whole career. While he’s better at home (3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) this Reds bats are on fire at away ballparks, and they’re looking to bounce back from their abysmal performance yesterday at the plate. Away from home, they’re getting on base that standard 30% of the time, and after a loss in game one this season, they’re 5-3 on the year. 

The Pirates are just about average when it comes to offense, and over their last ten games, they’re right at that 30% on base percentage as a team. Where they struggle, though, is against left-handed pitching this season, and that’s the recipe that we’ve got today. 

Let’s take the Reds on the Moneyline today to win, and extend our MLB of the Day streak we’ve got brewing. 

PICK: Cincinnati Reds ML

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