MLB Bet of the Day | June 17, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 102-99-4, -3.16u
RECAP: While we’re still teetering on the brink of success in the MLB, we at least hit our MLB of the Day after a roller coaster of a game between the Reds and the Brewers, where we cashed out on the Brewers for the day. We have a smaller slate today and there’s not a lot to be excited about, but today, we’re going to be looking at pitching heavy – especially with some great starters on the mound across the league. 

June 17th, 2024

We’ve bet on the game that the Reds are involved in for three straight days, and today, we’re literally going on to their next series against the Pirates, where Paul Skenes and company are hosting them in an NL Central battle. 

Skenes is obviously the coverboy here and the headliner, as he’s been one of the most electric pitchers to take on the league in a long time. I’m already laughing about how many strikeouts Elly De La Cruz is going to have against the fireballer, and it’s with good reason; Skenes is K’ing batters at a historic rate, and has shown that he won’t let good teams get to him. He’s striking out 36% of batters in the league so far and has a WHIP of 1.06 in night games this season. While he’s not as fire at home as he has been on the road, he’s still very capable of getting out of difficult situations against a Reds team that just doesn’t have a ton of pop in their lineup right now. 

On the other side is Carson Spiers, who has been a really pleasant surprise for the Reds this season. Spiers is a pitcher I like a lot, as he was shelled when he came up last season and started; but this season, he’s been really good, recently coming off of a relief appearance where he went 5.2 scoreless with seven K’s in relief. He’s finally stretched out to be a starter again, and this Pirates team has not been good as of late. Over his season so far, Spiers is in the upper 80th percentile in barrel percentage, hard hit percentage, and has a really, really great fastball. 

We’re getting this value at 8.5, while Sharp AI has this game at a total of 8 runs, which is good value that we’re looking for. These offenses haven’t been tearing it up recently (despite the Pirates just getting back from Coors), and these bullpens are literally so ready to go, with both teams’ best arms available for tonight’s opening contest. Both teams are hitting under .225 on the season against righties and get on base less than 30% of the time, so we’re going to rock with the under in this contest.

The public may look at Spiers and think “offense”, but I think that he and Skenes put on a show today. Under 8.5 is the move. 

PICK: Cincinnati / Pittsburgh under 8.5

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