MLB Bet of the Day | June 16, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 100-98-4, -3.53u
RECAP: We’re on the absolute worst run in the MLB so far this season, and we really cannot find our footing in this league so far. We’ve hit on some props and there have been really hot stretches, but this season just feels like it’s kicking me in the nuts at least two-three times a week, as we lost all three of our MLB plays yesterday. Who knows, maybe I’ll go be a full time soccer bettor. Maybe I’ll be better at that. Anyways, the Brewers. 

June 16th, 2024

We hit this game for a loss yesterday, but today, we’re shifting away from the total to focus on the home team, which has the juice today not only to win, but to win the series – especially because the Reds are the worst team in the league when they lose the second game of their series, and that’s the trend that we’re backing. 

The Brewers are sending Colin Rea to the mound, who I don’t really love… unless he’s at home, where he’s sporting a WHIP under one and has absolutely dominated offenses throughout his home starts. He’s phenomenal during day games as well, and he’s been able to hold the Blue Jays, Cubs, Phillies, and Red Sox to just four runs over his past twenty two innings. He’s been lowkey one of the most dependable pitchers in the league, and is a big reason why our Sharp AI projects the Brewers to win this game. 

On the other side is a player trending so far downwards it isn’t even funny in Frankie Montas. He’s allowed over three runs in five out of his last six outings, and he has a WHIP of 1.55 during day games this season, which is obviously not ideal for the Reds. 

The Reds have lost 75% of all game threes this season after they lose game two, and that’s the exact scenario that we have today; but it doesn’t come without their offensive lacking as well. These teams have both fallen into a minor slump at the plate, getting on base an equal 30% of the time and both teams hitting below average over their last ten games (.230 for MIL, .235 for CIN). And while the Reds have certainly put up more runs over their last ten games, the Brewers’ bread and butter is at home against righties this season, where they’re putting up over five runs per game and getting on base nearly 34% of the time – which is a masterclass in an offense that is taking over the NL Central.

We’re going to rock with the Brewers today after yesterday’s total flopped. I even like them up to -1.5 if the juice is too much for you, as I think that they roll – and the Reds will flounder in game three, per usual. 

PICK: Milwaukee Brewers ML

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