MLB Bet of the Day | June 15, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 100-95-4, -2.03u
RECAP: Another day, another loss in the MLB of the Day streets - but, it definitely pays to be PRO, because we actually even ourselves out with a team total parlay that hit for about even money, to actually not lose much at all. We were close on our MLB of the Day, but Hunter Brown just proved too dominant nowadays. On to today! 

June 15th, 2024

We’re looking at a juiced pick today that I like up to nine, but we’re going to slam it at the 8.5 number in this second game of an NL Central battle.
 
The Brewers are one of the top teams when it comes to overs when they’re the home favorite, with the over hitting nearly seventy percent of the time over a span of 21 games so far this season in this scenario. As well, if we go to the flip side, the Cincinnati Reds are hitting the over 57% of the time when they’re the away underdog… which means that we’re getting some value right off the get go, without even looking at pitchers. 

Andrew Abbott has a lot of potential to be a big dog in this league, and he’s been pretty darn good this season… except on the road, where he sports a 1.31 WHIP and he’s facing a team that capitalizes on baserunners more than most teams in the league. There’s just something about this home stadium for Milwaukee, as the Brewers hold the fifth-best OPS at home this season, hitting around .250 and getting on base 32% of the time. 

And today, they’re facing arguably the most dominant offense in the league over their last ten games, as the Reds are ready to pounce on Bryse Wilson. He has a 1.41 WHIP at home and they’re putting up over six runs per game over their last ten games. They get on base 32% of the time on the road, and Wilson has just been unbelievably bad during day games this season, allowing 12 runs over 15 innings of work.

Plus, this Reds team is just seeing the ball really, really well recently. Elly De La Cruz and Jeimer Candelario have been on a tear hitting the baseball, and every single starter on this team has a fly ball percentage above 35% over their last fourteen days. That’s an insane trend to capitalize on, and I think that the Reds should hit the snot out of the ball today.

While we don’t have any Sharps on the play or against the play, I just really think that we see a replica of yesterday’s game, with eleven or more runs scored. Expect fireworks in Milwaukee today. 

PICK: Cincinnati / Milwaukee over 8.5

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