MLB Bet of the Day | June 14, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 99-94-4, -2.01u
RECAP: Well, yesterday was one of those games where we ultimately win the MLB of the Day, which is always a good thing - and then drop the rest of our card. We drop one unit on the day, and thanks to Joe Ryan and company, it was the only thing that salvaged a three-loss day. We’re on to today, where there’s a massive slate. 

June 14th, 2024

Tarik Skubal might already have the Cy Young in the AL locked up, and today, he’s taking on an AL West offense that hasn’t been great at home this season in the Houston Astros, who are sending up-and-comer Hunter Brown to the mound to take on the Tigers. 

The Tigers are coming off of two straight series losses, and neither of these teams are great in the first game of the series so far this season. The road team has the best pitcher in the AL this season in Tarik Skubal on the mound, and Skubal has been lights out no matter where you place him this season. He’s given up six earned runs over his last five starts, but four of those came in one bad bunch against the Royals, who were the best offense in the league at that point. This Houston team is a far cry from that offense, and are without arguably their best player in Kyle Tucker. 

Houston is middle of the pack when it comes to OPS over the last fifteen games, but their biggest liability has been at home this season; they’re pushing across a league-average four runs per game, but on the road, they’re much better. The Tigers match their offensive output as the road team, putting up just over four runs per game on the road, but struggle to put guys on base. 

The biggest thing that the Tigers have though is their ability to hit when it counts; in fact, these two offenses are completely similar when it comes to their RBI numbers, and the fact of the matter is that Hunter Brown is still allowing a WHIP of 1.31 at home, despite improving throughout the season. He’s guaranteed to put a guy or two on each inning. 

The Sharp Report, though, is where we really separate these teams. The Sharps aren’t on either side, but the Squares and the Book Liabilities are both on the side of Houston; it’s a dynamic duo that means fade, fade, fade. When the book and the squares are on the same side, it isn’t a guarantee (nothing is), but it’s literally a best-case scenario for sports bettors who follow the report. 

For those reasons, we’re going to back the underdogs tonight in Houston, as the away team should be able to take care of business in a low-scoring game. Go Tigers. 

PICK: Detroit Tigers ML

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