MLB Bet of the Day | June 13, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 98-91-4, -0.97u
RECAP: It’s better to be lucky than good, and for the second straight day, we win a bet in the bottom of the ninth inning thanks to Ketel Marte saving our Team Total Pro Parlay. We went 3-0 yesterday with a massive win in our MLB of the Day, and the over in New York was never in question. We’re 9-1 over our last ten bets and up over five units in the last week – let’s keep it rolling today. 

June 13th, 2024

I don’t know if I’ve ever seen the Sharp AI predictor have such a field day against a team, but it absolutely hates the Oakland Athletics tonight, giving the Twins a predicted 72% chance to win tonight’s contest. While this is a chalky play, sometimes, you have to lean into the baseball gods, who run the chalkiest sport on the planet. 

Joe Ryan will be getting the nod for the Minnesota Twins tonight as they welcome the Oakland Athletics in the first game of their series. The Twins are pretty good when it comes to the first game of the series, winning in 66% of those games, and they are hosting the A’s, among the worst offenses in baseball over the last few weeks.

It doesn’t help that Joe Ryan is on the mound, who is projected at most books to go OVER 18 outs of work; he’s definitely struggled more at home than in away ballparks, but the projections tell the story. He’s giving other teams a WHIP of .95 at home, and that gets even better when you look at his stats over night games, with a WHIP of .91. He simply doesn’t allow the opposing team to get on base. 

The Athletics are throwing Luis Medina, a young right-hander who has only had two starts this season so far. Going back to last season, he is abysmal on the road, allowing 37 runs in 52 innings pitched, and holding teams to a WHIP of 1.62; you know that I love to pounce on high-WHIP pitchers, and today, that’s no different. 

Plus, this Twins team can hit over their last ten games, getting on base more than 32% of the time and averaging nearly five runs per game against righties. Over their last ten games against any pitcher, they’re putting up nearly identical numbers; they can hit. 

Want to know who can’t hit? The A’s, who have struggled to get the ball in play altogether. Over their last ten games, they’re hitting .190 and barely scraping across two runs per game, and getting on base only 26% of the time.

Against a lights-out strikeout pitcher in Ryan, we’re going to see a one-sided affair today, much like the Twins did to the Rockies yesterday. The Twins should be able to win this one comfortably. 

PICK: Minnesota Twins -1.5

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