MLB Bet of the Day | June 1, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 80-78-4, -2.31u
RECAP: We enter June less in the red than we did entering May, but this is par for the course for the start of the MLB season. We’ll get back on track in June, which was super profitable last season – and July and August last season, we took off. We went through really bright stretches in May, and now, we’ve got to turn it around to get off of the snide in the month of June. I know we can do it! 

June 1st, 2024

We’re going to the heart of Atlanta as the Braves take on the Athletics in the second game of this series. The Braves are sending out ace Chris Sale, and Oakland is sending out 34-year-old Aaron Brooks.

Brooks is a wild card in this game, as he’s pitched pretty well over his first three starts this season. He’s gone six innings, seven innings, and then just over four innings in his three starts while limiting damage in all three. He has two quality starts under his name, but faces a much tougher test in Atlanta. My biggest worry with Brooks is that he has an xERA much higher than his current ERA… but he’s done nothing to show that he won’t be able to keep this offense at bay. 

Sale is the star of the show though today, as he might be the advanced stats Cy Young so far this season. He ranks in the top fifteenth percentile in nearly every advanced stat, and he has one of the best xERA’s in the country. He’s 6-0 this season at home through six games and has a WHIP of .69 on the season in his home ballpark, and has only allowed 6 earned runs over 34 innings pitched. Atlanta are unders machines when he’s pitching, as they’ve hit the under in four out of his last five games. In addition, the A’s are hitting .164 away from home against lefties and scoring 2.4 runs per game in that stretch. 

Over their last ten games, the A’s have struggled to hit the ball, hitting .235 and only getting on base 29% of the time. The more surprising stat though is the Atlanta offense, who is hitting even worse over that stretch – they’re batting .222 over their last ten games and getting on base a measly 27% of the time. Even yesterday they struggled to push runs across the board against JP Sears, and while Brooks isn’t at that level, eight runs is a whole lot. 

I believe that the public looks at the 8 number and scoffs at it, thinking that the Braves might be able to score 8 on their own… but this offense just hasn’t as dynamic as they usually are. Let’s rely on these pitchers to keep these offenses at bay and take the under in what could be a much closer game than people realize.  

PICK: Oakland / Atlanta under 8

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!