MLB Bet of the Day | July 8, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 143-140-5, -0.61u
RECAP: We kept it light yesterday, and it paid off for us, gaining two units on the day and propelling our record into the positive, hitting both of our plays. The Mets took until the 9th inning to get their runs across, and Kansas City on the run line was never in doubt throughout the game. It was a sweat-free MLB of the Day, and nothing but sweat on the team total parlay. On to today, where we have a smaller slate to choose from! 

July 8th, 2024

My model has this game as being really, really close, with both teams scoring over 4.5 runs - but someone’s gotta win, and that’s why we’re taking the over in game four of this riveting series. 

The Nationals and Cardinals have scored a million runs in this series, and that shouldn’t stop today as SPs Mitchell Parker and Miles Mikolas head to the bump today. While both of these pitchers have had glimpses of brilliance this season, these offenses are firing on all cylinders as of late. 

Mikolas is someone we’ve tailed on the under in games before, but his track record in day games leaves much to be desired this season. During the day, he’s sporting a WHIP of 1.27 and has allowed 28 earned runs in 44 innings. If he goes six innings today, he should have more than three earned runs against him at least; and the over has hit in three straight matchups for Mikolas. Plus, over their last ten games, the Nats have gotten on base 34% of the time - add that to his existing WHIP, and we’ve got an offense here.

Parker has been an underrated pitcher this season, but his last few starts have put him into a hole. He’s allowed 11 runs over his last three starts (over 17 innings) and he’s been just about league average at everything this season. While he’s been great at home, this Cards offense is also firing, getting on base a whopping 32% of the time over their last ten games, and much of this middle-relief for the Nationals is washed. They’re going to rely on Parker going at least six in this game.

Finally, this umpire is an overs machine, hitting the over in 75% of his games where he’s been behind the plate. This park is one of the best for overs in the league, and St. Louis is one of the five-best teams in the league at hitting the over in games that are out of their division. 

This series has scored a million runs, and it would be sad to go out on a note where this game is low-scoring. Let’s follow the suit and take the over one more time. 

PICK: St. Louis / Washington over 9

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