MLB Bet of the Day | July 6, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 138-138-5, -2.79u
RECAP: All of a sudden, what goes up, must come down in the MLB season it feels, as we lose two units on the day, going 1-3 overall. Our Team Total Parlay once again misses by just one run, and the Reds just simply didn’t have enough juice to finish the job yesterday. Our totals evened out though, with the Cubs under hitting, but the Orioles game not having a run scored after the second inning. On to today! 

July 6th, 2024

We’re hitting a total on an afternoon game here today, in a game where a million runs were scored yesterday by the home team. That can only mean one thing: expected regression between these offenses.

The Pirates are hosting the Mets today as David Peterson takes on Bailey Falter – two names that don’t exactly jump off of the books at you. While PNC Park is generally a more hitter-friendly venue, today, we’re looking for these offenses to be kept at bay because of specific trends. As well, Sharp AI has this total at a point under where we’re getting it, which makes for us happy bettors.

While the total has been moving upwards, it’s interesting that these pitchers’ trends actually favor the under. Falter has an xBA of .212 against these Mets in his career, and is backed by some pretty stellar home statistics; he’s allowed a WHIP of 1.13 at home, and excels during the daytime, with a WHIP of 1.05. He’s locked in at home during the day.

Peterson isn’t a slouch either, and yesterday’s outpouring of runs is truly an anomaly. Throughout his career, Peterson has dominated Pirates’ bats, and in his three starts away from New York, he has a WHIP of 1.16 away from home. 
This season though, the Mets have been really, really poor when they lose the first game of the series – their offense hasn’t shown up, and they consistently lose games in this situation. The Pirates don’t fare much better, but there’s no consistent data that shows that their offense cools off in game two. The Mets… absolutely do. 

The umpire favors the under as well this season, and nine runs is a whole lot with two nearly completely rested bullpens. I love that this number actually climbed higher; we’re going against line movement today, and favoring the under. 

PICK: NYM/PIT under 9.5 

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