MLB Bet of the Day | July 4, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 131-135-5, -4.52u
RECAP: Yesterday was a meh day overall, as we go 3-3 on the day including a winner in our bet of the day, and wins in Houston and the total in Oakland. The Cubs are the Cubs, the Marlins are the Marlins, and we were literally one run off of our team total parlay cashing to bring us into the positive. Today, we have VERY early baseball, and that’s the game that we’re going to highlight today. 

July 4th, 2024

Are you awake yet? Do you think that the Mets and Nationals players are awake yet? That’s the game that we’re highlighting today, and we got the play at a sick price, as Jose Quintana and Jake Irvin are on the mound for these two squads. 

Sharp AI has this total at 7.5, and we’re getting it at a number two runs higher, as we’re taking advantage of some bettors pulling the trigger to WANT to see some fireworks in Washington. 

Irvin has been quietly one of the most consistent pitchers in the league this season, and today he faces a Mets squad that has been hitting the ball well; but he’s more dominant than any of the bats that he’s going to face. Irvin has absolutely dominated the Mets in his career, holding these batters to a .195 xBA in their plate appearances, and he’s been brilliant the past two months. 

In nine day games this season, he’s allowed only 15 runs in 53 innings pitched, and has a WHIP of .92, which is absolutely insane. While he’s been less than good at home this season, his day game powers will overcome, as he’s only had ONE game that he’s blown up at home, and that was way early on in the season.

Quintana is a little more on the sketchy side, but I don’t trust this Nationals offense enough to care. The Nats are hitting .221 over their last ten games and are getting on base more less than 29% of the time. Quintana has been poor on the road, but his one saving grace is day games – he’s averaging 1.07 WHIP and has been decidedly more dominant during the daytime this season. 

My models have this game around 8 runs, and that’s where we’re going to stick this landing, as we have about a run or two of wiggle room based on all of the data that we’ve seen. These bullpens are not at full strength as of the moment, which means that the starters are going to have to be the ones to put on the fireworks. 

It’s too early to play baseball. Take the under. 

PICK: New York / Washington under 9.5

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