MLB Bet of the Day | July 3, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 128-132-5, -4.40u
RECAP: Yesterday was a day of stagnation in the MLB, as we lose .16 units and go 2-2 on the day, including a loss in our MLB of the Day. Cleveland’s bullpen blew their three run lead, and while they ultimately came back to win, there was no hope of hitting the MLB of the Day once the ninth inning came around. We hit our team total parlay, hit Minnesota against Skubal, and lose in Toronto. Let’s get it today! 

July 3rd, 2024

Today’s MLB of the Day rides on the back of two pitchers that we’ve relied on before, but separately; tonight, I think that they respectively dominate the opposition, and we calmly hit our under, even at a low number.

Chris Sale has been on a tear lately, allowing just two earned runs over his last two starts in twelve innings. He’s a home machine, and he is in the top percentile for pretty much every advanced stat in the MLB. At home, he’s allowing just under .9 batters to reach base per game, and this Giants team has been dominated by him throughout his career. He’s allowing an xBA of .131 against this Giants lineup, and there’s a real chance that he could go 7-8 innings in this one. 

Jordan Hicks is on the other side, and while he hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Sale, he still deserves his flowers against this Braves lineup, in which he holds a xBA of .208 against these Braves. Most advanced stats suggest that he’s been lucky this season, but there’s no real sign that it won’t continue today; he’s more dominant at missing bats on the road, and his 1.40 WHIP at night isn’t great, but it isn’t the worst it could be. 

Plus, this Braves team hasn’t shown fireworks over their last ten games, scoring just under three runs per game and getting on base a measly 28% of the time. I’ll take that percentage, combined with his WHIP, to determine that he should be alright in this game. 

The bullpens are obviously the scary part here, but when we’re looking at our umpire tonight, we’re more confident in the under. He’s 11-5 when it comes to the under this season, and in fact, the away team usually performs better when he’s behind the dish. Before his last outburst of runs in the Yankees game, he had hit seven straight unders. 

Let’s ride these two starters, who should both go 6+ innings, into the sunset in what should be a low-scoring game. The Giants don’t have an offense, and the Braves can’t push runs across the plate – hopefully Sale and Hicks will do their parts, too.

PICK: San Francisco / Atlanta under 7.5

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