MLB Bet of the Day | July 23, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 164-158-7, +0.33u
RECAP: Yesterday’s slate had weird vibes all around it, and seemed to be one of those days that no matter what we played, it was a loser. We go 0-2 as we kept our slate light, as the pitching matchups and models just didn’t show a ton of value throughout the day yesterday. Today we’ll be back with a new set of plays, though, to propel us back way above .500 on the season. 

July 23rd, 2024

The Miami Marlins are just 5-12 this season in the first game of the series coming off of a loss in the game before it, and this Orioles team is the best road team in the league this season, hitting on the spread as the road favorite 54% of the time. 

Albert Suarez will be taking on (we think) righty Kyle Tyler in what will be a bullpen-ish game for the Marlins, a bullpen that is ranked 16th in the league and has an ERA way over five in their last three games. Suarez has been one of the best success stories in the league this season after showing his ability to miss barrels. While he’s “struggled” in July, he really hasn’t regressed too much; he still owns a 1.18 WHIP this month and has given up only 13 runs over 45 innings during night games this season. That’s the setting for tonight’s contest in Miami, and it’s a contest I think he will excel at.

Plus, these Marlins don’t hit. At home, they score just three runs per game and are getting on base the worst of any team in the majors at 27% of the time, which makes Suarez a great candidate for unders on runs allowed. Baltimore, meanwhile, is getting on base 32% of the time on the road this season and has annihilated righties on the road this season, and there should be plenty of righties pitching today for the Marlins. 

Meanwhile, the pitching for the Marlins is a question mark. We believe that they’ll start with Kyle Tyler, the righty who has gone about four innings of work in each of his starts this season, but it could fluctuate between guys like Andrew Nardi and Calvin Faucher. No matter who the starter is, it’s hard to trust this pitching staff, which is just as average as they come.

Let’s take the Orioles today on the run line, because there’s no doubt in my mind that the profile of Albert Suarez matches up really well against this Marlins lineup. It should be the O’s in the driver’s seat all game long. 

PICK: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 

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