MLB Bet of the Day | July 22, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 164-156-7, +2.33u
RECAP: Finally we’re on a roll, gaining another unit of profit yesterday thanks to our MLB Free Bet of the Day and our Team Total Parlay hitting big. The Padres and Guardians blanked each other, while the rest of the PRO Plays go 2-2 – we’ve had a good start to the second half of the MLB season and are looking to continue this streak this week. 

July 22nd, 2024

Today is a day where I haven’t found much value whatsoever, so we’re siding with the squares today – and fading the book, which has lost five units on the month so far, as we head to Minnesota to support the away team.

Flat-out, the Phillies might be the best “game one” team in baseball - and in this condition, Minnesota is one of the worst. So far this season, Minnesota has lost 75% of game one’s coming off of a loss the day before, and just yesterday, the lost two straight games to the Brewers at home. I think today they lose a third straight. 

It’s no secret that Ranger Suarez has reverted to his old form and is becoming a bit of a bum, losing four of his last five games pitched, and allowing fifteen earned runs over his last three starts. I know, it’s that bad. BUT, he’s had some significant time off, and I believe that this Twins lineup is perfect for him to bounce back against. Over their last ten games against left-handed pitching, they’ve gotten on base only 26% of the time, and they’ve struggled to put the ball in play without Trevor Larnach in the lineup, one of their best “advanced stats” hitters. 

Bailey Ober will be backing the Twins, and while I love Ober, his biggest weakness is night games. In night games this season, Ober is allowing a WHIP of 1.23 and has allowed 22 earned runs over 42 innings. While those numbers aren’t bad, this Phillies offense is elite, pushing across just over five runs per game against righties over their last ten games, and getting on base 33% of the time this season. While the biggest knock on them is that they struggle more on the road, they win 54% of the time as the road favorite this season. As the favorite in general, that number skyrockets to wins 65% of the time, behind the big bats of Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper. 

Let’s back the Phils today as the Sharp App gives them a 58% chance to win, and I love backing Ranger Suarez, despite his struggles. 

PICK: Philadelphia Phillies ML

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