MLB Bet of the Day | July 21, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 161-154-7, +1.25u
RECAP: Overall a meh day yesterday as we go 2-2 on the day for a loss of .28u. Once again our Team Total Parlay loses by one team and the total in Toronto went way over, but we recovered nicely as the Orioles took care of business against Scherzer and the Royals won super easily once again, as they’ve been hot against these White Sox to start the second half. Let’s make it a great Sunday!  

July 21st, 2024

The first two games in this series have been blowouts on both sides, but today figures to be a much closer game with a pitching matchup ready to go six or more innings on both sides. The Padres are looking to close out their series with a win over the Guardians on the back of Michael King. 

First, these offenses have been lackluster over their last ten games. Both of these teams are in the bottom five in OPS over their last ten games and have been struggling to consistently put together offensive production. We’ve seen it already in this series as both teams have floundered at least once already, with both of these games going 7-0 for each side. 

As for the pitching, King has been an underrated starter this season and has been the definition of consistency for the Padres. He’s allowed just three runs over his last three starts and has only allowed 12 hits during that stretch; in fact, he’s even racked 20 strikeouts over that stretch as well. All season he’s missed bats and avoided hard contact, and that won’t change today against one of the offenses that is struggling the most over this stretch. King is crazy good on the road this season as well, and should limit the damage today. 

Ben Lively isn’t a slouch either, and home games have been his bread and butter. This season he’s allowing a WHIP of just 1.02 at home, and he’s only allowed ten runs over 35 innings pitched in Cleveland. He’s had, essentially, one bad start over his last six starts, but if you remove that one game, he’s allowing just under two runs per game in this stretch; and like we discussed earlier, this Padres offense struggles to get off the ground without Tatis to jumpstart it. 

Let’s take the under between two teams that have struggled to produce runs, and are very evenly-matched by my models. 

PICK: San Diego / Cleveland under 8

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