MLB Bet of the Day | July 20, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 159-152-7, +1.53u
RECAP: And we’re back in the positive, as yesterday was a nice welcome back into the world of the MLB with a gain of over two units of profit. While the Chicago Cubs continue to let us down when we bet on them, our MLB Bet of the Day, Team Total Parlay, and plus-money underdog all hit to propel us into the positive for the start of the second half of the MLB season. 

July 20th, 2024

We’re fading the White Sox again, and that’s certainly not something that’s changed since the first half of the MLB season, considering the White Sox are, in my opinion, the absolute worst team in the league. Today, we have Jonathan Cannon matching up against Brady Singer. 

Singer has been quietly one of the best workhorses in the league this season, and despite being hit around his last time on the mound, he’s been just about as consistent as can be in his stretch before that (and, in that series he pitched, the Royals pitching staff struggled as a whole in Boston). I’m not concerned. 
I would be concerned if I were the Sox though, because Singer’s bread and butter is at home. In fact, in his last two games, he’s allowed two runs over his last 12 innings and has a WHIP of 1.01 at home; that’s really, really great, especially in a hitter-friendly ballpark like Kaufmann. 

Cannon might not have that luxury of playing well here though, as he’s sporting a WHIP of 1.64 on the road; nearly every inning on the road, he allows two baserunners on average. That’s crazy, and it creates an environment ripe for runs for the Royals. In fact, my models show that the Royals should score upwards of six runs in this game, and the White Sox only average under three runs over their last ten games, and my models show around that same number in this game as well.

I would even be tempted to tell users to up this line to -2.5 or so if you don’t like the juice, as this game sets up so well for the home team to wallop the White Sox tonight. In fact, the umpire behind home plate agrees with us as well; the home team has won in 66% of games that he’s umpired this season. He rarely gets to see the bottom of the ninth inning. 

Let’s ride with Brady Singer and the rest of this Royals offense that put up seven yesterday. This is an offense that can get hot at home, and they should be able to stomp on Cannon and the White Sox tonight. 

PICK: Kansas City Royals -1.5

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