MLB Bet of the Day | July 2, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 126-130-5, -4.24u
RECAP: We win both of our bets yesterday as our Team Total Parlay cashes, and our MLB Bet of the Day cashes. The NRFI was absolutely sweat-free, as the runs came well after the first inning in the Mets/Nats game, which ended an astounding 9-7. Our team total parlay was much sweatier, as the Astros waited until the ninth to grab the three runs we needed. Positive start to July, let’s keep it going! 

July 2nd, 2024

The Chicago White Sox are heading to Cleveland in an AL Central matchup between Chris Flexen (CWS) and Carlos Carrasco (CLE) in the first game of their series. While I normally like to beat down on players like Carrasco, we’re actually going to lean on him to… uh… dominate. 

This season, the Guardians are the most dominant home team in the league, especially when they’re the home favorite – they win by an average of 1.6 runs per game, and they have a win percentage near 80%. The White Sox are the exact opposite as the away underdog – they’re a whopping 8-33 this season when they’re on the road and they’re not favored, losing by an average of 2.5 runs per game. 

To add onto that, these are stark contrasts in first-game dynamics. The Sox are riding a streak of 3-17 when they’ve lost the previous game and are heading to a new town, and the Guardians are 17-10 in the first game of the season, and they’re backing Cookie Carrasco here today, who has been… better? 

Carrasco is often seen as the laughing stock of the league, but he’s been quite formidable over his last two starts, allowing just three earned runs over his last eleven innings pitched, and striking out ten in that stretch. Flexen has been the opposite, and a consistent loser. In fact, he’s lost all five of his last five starts, and the Sox have lost by more than two in three of those games. Even if he pitches effectively, this Sox bullpen just cannot get it together to hold any sort of semblance in the game. 

The Guardians, over their last ten games, are scoring two more runs per game than the Sox, hitting nearly thirty points on average higher, and getting on base thirty points higher as well. They’ve been really, really good on offense and at home, they get on base nearly 32% of the time. 

Let’s take the Guardians by two in this opening game of the contest, and pile onto the Chris Flexen losing train, which doesn’t look like it’ll stop soon. 

PICK: Cleveland Guardians -1.5

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