MLB Bet of the Day | July 19, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 156-151-7, -0.51u
RECAP: Gosh, it’s been nearly a week since we last talked, and we go 2-2 on the MLB All-Star break. We hit a play for a “new participant” to win the Home Run Derby and we picked the AL to win the All-Star Game, but lost by the hook on the total in that game. We also picked over for total home runs in the first round, and it was a really disappointing derby altogether. On to today, where we have a massive slate with massive value. 

July 19th, 2024

Ah, the sweet smell of the second half of the MLB season. The first half of the season was a complete wash, roughing out at literally just over half a unit lost. It’s like we didn’t even play the season yet. That’s why it starts today, and our freebie is making us head to New York as the Yankees take on the Rays in the first game of their AL East series. 

The Yankees are throwing Gerrit Cole, who has looked really rough at times throughout his start to this season. He’s had a ton of time to rest, and I think that he’ll come back to dominate; the oddsmakers believe so as well, because the line has moved in the Yankees direction all day long. Throughout his career, Cole has dominated the Rays, holding them to an xBA of .205. And for all of the crap that Cole’s been getting about the start to his season, his advanced stats show that he’s actually getting better and better throughout each start, including his last start where he allowed just one run through six innings of work, his longest outing of the season. 

Eflin is another pitcher who has gotten a lot of flack this season, and it’s for sure due; he hasn’t pitched well in most cases this season. But he owns the Yankees, and owned them for seven innings before the All-Star break. He commands his sweeper really well and this break should help him get his overall command back. While his sinker is his bread and butter, he should be able to puzzle this Yankees lineup once again. 

As well, the Yankees haven’t been able to hit Eflin well in his career. They’re bringing an xBA of .220 to this contest, and Aaron Judge’s whiff percentage is at 70% against Eflin, one of the worst of his career. Eflin should be able to hold these bats at bay. 

Overall, we’re going to take the under in this divisional matchup, because both pitching staffs are incredibly rested, and historical trends suggest that these bats should continue to struggle. My model shows just under 8 runs scored in this game, and there’s enough value here to back up what I’m seeing. Take the under in New York. 

PICK: Tampa Bay / New York under 8

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