MLB Bet of the Day | July 12, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 151-147-7, -1.38u
RECAP: Another solid day in the MLB as we hit two of our plays, and our other play of the day pushes. The NRFI in the Mets and Washington game was no sweat whatsoever, and the team total parlay cashed super easily for all three teams as well, giving us a relatively sweat-free day. The only sweat was the total in Cincinnati, as it pushed to go 2-0-1 on the day. 

July 12th, 2024

We’ve talked about Tyler Anderson before, and today, we’re heading back to his workshop as the Angels take on the Mariners in the second game of their series. The M’s took care of business last night, absolutely obliterating the Angels – but that won’t happen tonight, especially with these two on the mound.

Anderson is deservedly an All-Star, as he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in just three of his 18 starts this season; in those 18 starts, he’s gone five innings in literally all of them; he’s reached the sixth inning in 13 of those 18 starts as well. He’s a machine, and his night game numbers prove it, allowing a WHIP of just 1.20 in night games. He gets out of jams unlike any other pitcher, and is one of the least-hard-hit pitchers in the league this season. 

Bryan Woo is opposing him, a pitcher coming off of a short stint on the injured list; but when he’s on, he’s firing on all cylinders. He misses barrels at an extremely high rate, and his xERA is among the top ten in the league right now. He’s the best pitcher in the league at avoiding walks, and is allowing a WHIP of .76 through his five away starts this season. The M’s are very lucky to have this talented pitcher. 

But enough about pitching… let’s get to the runs. Both of these teams are even-to-bad in game twos this season, and the Angels have been dormant on offense over their last ten. They rank near last in batting average, sitting at a crazy .207 over their last ten games, and get on base only 28% of the time during that stretch, scoring under three runs per game. The Mariners are better, but there’s no way that they score that many runs two games in a row; this is not a potent offense to rely on in any way, shape, or form. 

And get this: Seattle is the best unders team in division games this season, hitting unders 65% of the time in these situations. My model has this game right near eight runs, but I expect even less from these offenses. Take the under. 

PICK: Seattle / Los Angeles under 8.5

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!