MLB Bet of the Day | August 20, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 206-200-8, -1.61u
RECAP: It was a close-to-even day yesterday as we lose our MLB of the Day by one run. Those games always tend to be the sweatiest, and we can’t get an easy one to come our way on the free plays. The sweat-free game of the day was our PRO Play, where we had the under in the game between the Dodgers and the Mariners, where only three runs were scored. Easy peasy! On to today! 

August 20th, 2024

Listen, I have a massive NL League-Winner and World Series-winner bet on the team we’re betting against today, and it’s not for the faint of heart, because we’re relying on an offense to be hot and stay hot. But our Sharp AI leans one way, and it’s the way that we have to follow in today’s contest between the Padres and the Twins. 

Sharp AI gives the Twins a 67% predictive win percentage to win this game today in the matchup between Bailey Ober and Martin Perez. I would make the argument that this pitching matchup is incredibly even, but it just so happens that the pitcher for the Twins just may be the best pitcher in baseball since the ASG. 

Perez has been good too, don’t get me wrong! He’s made five starts since the All-Star break, and he’s been dominant in nearly each one of them since joining the Padres. But who has he faced? In just the past month, he’s faced the Rockies, and Marlins, and the Pirates… three offenses that most pitchers could luck into success against. Ober has had to prove it. 

Ober’s been hot all season, and we’ve backed him a couple times over the past few weeks, but there’s good reason for it. He’s got a WHIP of .76 since the Midseason Classic, and he eases into games better than any other pitcher in the league, with his ERA actually lowering the longer he stays in the game, which is the opposite of most pitchers. He gets batters to chase better than most pitchers in the league, and he’s been on a great stretch. 

We’re going to rely on some regression on Martin Perez, and we’re going to see if Ober can stay consistent. Jose Miranda and company need to stay hot, and that’s what we’re backing today. 

PICK: Minnesota Twins ML

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