MLB Bet of the Day | April 9, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 14-15, -1.91u
RECAP: Seems like the best way to tail me over the past few weeks of the MLB season has been to tail on one day and then fade the next, as we have yet to have two consecutive days of profit in the MLB so far this season. We’ll get hot, but it just may take about a month to really get our feet underneath me. The Brewers lost by two but made a valiant comeback, but it just wasn’t enough. 

April 9th, 2024

Corbin Burnes was being talked about as washed and dried out throughout this offseason after his move to the Baltimore area, but his start to this season has essentially been anything but that. Through 31 batted-ball events this season, he has some of the highest marks in the league. Today, he’s facing an up-and-coming pitcher who struggles with command from time to time. 

The Orioles are heading to Fenway today to take on the Red Sox, who are maybe the hottest team in the league right now on the backs of Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill. But the pitcher on the mound is just no joke: Burnes currently has a .220 xwOBA, .199 xBA, and he doesn’t walk ANYONE. He may be due for a letdown game, but I can’t pick AGAINST him because of that. 

The Red Sox, in the early version of the Sharp Report, are in both the FADE categories… the books have a liability on them, and they’re a massive public play. The Sharp App Money Handles confirm this, as in the early stages of the morning, they have a difference of 69% (nice) with only 22% of the betting handle. That’s some big public sides here that we’re going up against. 

Plus, this Orioles can burst into an offensive machine. So far this season against righties, they have been: they’re scoring over six runs per game against righties. They’re seeing the ball well, and last season, the daytime was Brayan Bello’s kryptonite; he allowed a WHIP of 1.75 during the daytime. Today’s day game could prove rough for the young kid that’s wearing the weight of the Boston Red Sox’ pitching staff on his shoulders.

We’re going to rely on a great start from Burnes today, who usually gets up for division battles. Corbin Burnes is going to keep the hot offense down, and the O’s should keep humming; take the O’s. 

PICK: Baltimore Orioles ML

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