MLB Bet of the Day | April 8, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 14-14, -0.91u
RECAP: What a great turn of events yesterday, as we nearly have gained back everything that we lost early in the season to get to almost even. We not only hit our MLB of the Day (on a sweaty, sweaty game) but we also hit the Pirates moneyline at plus-money on their walk-off error by Gunnar Henderson. That gained us nearly two units of profit and we’re living now, looking to erase the deficit that we’ve placed ourselves into. Onto today, where we have a massive slate! 

April 8th, 2024

The NL Central is better than everyone thinks, and part of that hype is built on the backs of these two teams squaring off in Great American Ballpark in the first game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are throwing former hyped-pitcher Graham Ashcraft, while the Brewers are throwing a pitcher who has literally not pitched in 18 months in Aaron Ashby. 

But which side are the Money Handles favoring? The away side. In fact, the Sharp App Money Handles tool is favoring the Brewers more than we’ve seen in the MLB so far this season, at literally even odds – the Brew Crew have 21% of the betting handle, while 91% of the money handle are on the Brewers. We’ve had line movement in this way as well, resulting in a 70% difference between the two handles. While the Reds opened as clear favorites, that line has looked murkier as the day has gone on.

And there’s good reason, too – the Brewers have a completely rested bullpen, and is playing a pitcher who has a .327 career average against the Brewers’ lineup. The Brewers are one of the hottest teams in the league so far this season, and it’s apparent that they may be a force to be reckoned with, despite their pitcher being gone for a while. 

I don’t really even care about the numbers from Aaron Ashby, because 2022’s stats won’t help us here – it’s the side of the plate that I care more about. The Brewers have owned the Reds in their last ten games against each other, and the Reds struggle HEAVILY against lefties this season, resulting in an average of .238 this season and less than one home run hit per game. Even when their ballpark favors the long ball, they really, really struggle against left-handed pitching. The Brewers are dominating righties as well, and I’m pretty positive that they should continue this trend heading into tonight’s contest. 

The Brewers have the pitching depth and the Reds haven’t shown to be able to effectively hit lefties. Contreras, Yelich & company should be able to put up some runs against this Reds pitching lineup today. 

PICK: Milwaukee Brewers ML

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