MLB Bet of the Day | April 7, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 12-14, -2.81u
RECAP: We’ve strung together two straight freebies in the MLB, and are looking to build on the success we had yesterday. We also hit a plus-money winner in Seattle yesterday, but then dropped two other moneyline plays in the Astros and the Orioles. The O’s had multiple opportunities to win that game and just came up short, while the Astros never had a shot. Gotta keep digging. 

April 7th, 2024

One of the teams that I saw coming a mile away was the Kansas City Royals, who have the entire making of a really young and exciting team to watch for the rest of the season, playing in a weak AL Central division that the Guardians and Twins are supposed to be fighting over; but today, the Royals are taking on breakout start Crochet of the White Sox, and there’s a lot of money coming in on that side. 

While we aren’t going to use the Money Handles tool for this one, we can still find significant value in the Royals today in what should be a toss-up. Neither of these pitchers have significant experience against each other, and so we’re going to rely on the data to find us a winner here today. 

Alec Marsh is one of those breakout stars that I actually think the world should be focusing on, not necessarily Crochet. Guys like Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt, Jr. have had incredible starts to their season, and are hitting really effectively. This will be Crochet’s first real test of the season, and Marsh is playing one of the worst lineups in the league.

In 2023, Marsh performed significantly better during the day than at night, but he showed immaculate stuff against the Orioles last time out. I’m a huge believer that the third start is always the up or the down for a pitcher, depending on how they’ve been performing. Crochet has been pitching well twice in a row, and now he’s going to face the music on the road. He’ll have his regression to the mean. 

There is a lot of hype around Crochet, but I’m not a big believer that he will be able to will this White Sox team, who has lost seven of their first eight games, to win this game against a high-powered offense like the Royals. The White Sox are averaging .188 and less than two runs scored against righties this season, and that’s good enough for me to take the Royals, who are averaging nearly five runs per game against lefties.

Let’s take the Royals to win all four games in this series, and ride into the sunset on the back of Bobby Witt and company. 

PICK: Kansas City ML

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