MLB Bet of the Day | April 6, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 10-12, -2.72u
RECAP: And once again, we’re going to be fighting an uphill battle to make it back to even on the season. We’re having a tough time scouting this season, and it’s showing, as we’re making plays that are CLOSE to hitting, and then just flounder. In our MLB of the Day, Mets had the lead going into the 8th, and squander it in the 8th and lose in extras. A couple of bad breaks won’t deter us, but we have quite the battle in front of us. 

April 6th, 2024

I’ve taken the last few days off, mostly because I needed a palette-cleaner to get right in the MLB. Today is that chance, as we’re going to zero-in on a matchup between two titans in the AL West. 

The Rangers are playing host to the Astros tonight, and it’s an Astros team that has struggled to see the ball well early in the season. The Rangers kicked them in the chin yesterday, but I expect tonight’s game to be much more competitive and low-scoring. 

The Astros are throwing JP France, who has shown glimpses of brilliance throughout the past two seasons, but hasn’t been able to sustain these numbers long-term. He was one out away from a quality start last time out, and while he’s been hit hard by the Rangers in the past, he’s averaging at least six innings per game on the road, dating back to last season. He also dominated in night games last season as well, and seems like a good pick for tonight.

The Jon Gray-led Rangers are looking to get a better performance than last time out of their starter, when Gray was rocked by the Chicago Cubs. He’s a bounce-back pitcher though, despite the fact that he is a little shakier at home than on the road. In fact, last season, in nearly every game that he allowed five or more runs on the board, he followed that performance up with less than three runs allowed the next game. Next-Gen stats for you! 

Finally, we turn to our lovely Sharp App Money Handles tool, where we see significant value on this play. We have 25% of the betting handle on the under in this game (which makes sense, considering last night and how potent these offenses can be), while we’re seeing 75% of the money handle on it, giving us the 49% difference that we want and need for a play. 

Let’s handle the under on this play, as it could be tight and sketchy, but should come out with a win. Less than ten runs seams feasible, right? 

PICK: Houston / Texas under 10.5

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