MLB Bet of the Day | April 29, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 37-38-1, -2.58u
RECAP: Again, we pick the Dodgers, and they fall short of the overall goal here losing 3-1 against the lowly Jays – but PRO Subscribers cashed in on the Washington Nationals, as they won as a +120 dog to actually help us profit a little bit today. We’re going to get all of it back, even if it isn’t in one day – I hope you’re there for it. 

April 29th, 2024

Today, we’re going to cross paths with a Mega Sharp play that was crossed off because of a sharp on the other side – but we’re still going to hammer the play, because these pitchers just might be incapable of keeping these offenses off of the boards, despite their previous successes. 

Today, the Cardinals head to Detroit to take on the Tigers in Comerica Park, the site of two of my last MLB freebies of the Day losses. That’s alright, as we’re actually going to be taking the other side of those two bets that we had previously lost, and it’s all because of Steven Matz and Kenta Maeda. 

Early in the season, Maeda was an auto-fade. Something has gotten into him as of late though, as he pitched really genuinely well, going five innings of unearned ball. But that being said: he’s allowed the over in three out of his last five games by himself alone, and the pitcher on the opposite bump has also been a run-allowing machine. While Maeda has diced the Cardinals hitters in his career, those numbers only come from four total batters; don’t let them deceive you. In total, the Cards are scoring almost four runs per game this season against righties, including getting on base more than 30% of the time. 

Matz is another pitcher who doesn’t get hit hard, but definitely allows batters to reach base at an ungodly rate. He’s got an xBA of .300 and he doesn’t strike anyone out so far this season, including trips against teams who strike out the most in the league. The Tigers are averaging over five runs per game against lefties in nine innings this season, and are hitting near that xBA at .280. Over his last three games, he’s got an ERA of 8.36 and a WHIP near two. YIKES! 

Look for Arenado, Goldy, and Riley Greene to get on the board tonight as they will look to tee off on these pitchers who have struggled this season. Don’t let the park fool you – extra base hits can be had, and there should be a hefty amount of runs tonight. All we need are nine. 

PICK: St. Louis / Detroit over 8

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