MLB Bet of the Day | April 28, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 36-37-1, -2..78u
RECAP: And yesterday was the dagger. We were close in multiple plays, but yesterday’s performance of 0-4 in my MLB plays was just flat-out abysmal. The Royals and Tigers never even came close to the under, and we lost our other three plays by differing margins. It’s just a setback for a major comeback, but this month has knocked us on our butt. 

April 28th, 2024

For the first time all year, I’m going to finally do it – I’m going to bet on the new “superteam” of the MLB in the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they look to sweep the Toronto Blue Jays in Canada. 

The Dodgers are throwing SP Michael Grove here, who is making a spot start in what will be deemed a bullpen game. The Blue Jays are throwing Kevin Gausman, who would have struck fear into my eyes last season, but this season, he’s been more of a teddy bear than anything else. 

Grove will probably give 2-3 innings of work today, and they will probably turn towards Alex Vesia (who has been absolutely dominant over his last three sessions) or Ryan Yarbrough (who could use some work, but I still like the lefty matchup) in this one. Our Sharp App Money Handles tool doesn’t mind the reliever-based game, as we’re seeing some potentially sharp action on this moneyline; we’re seeing only 37% of the betting handle hammering the Dodgers, while 91% of all money coming in is on the away favorites, creating a difference of 54%. 

But what really perks me up for this game is the offensive output for the Dodgers, who are averaging over six runs per nine innings against righties. Gausman is an innings-eater, so even if he gets hit around a bit, he’ll stay in the game. This creates great opportunities for bats like Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman to tee off in the Rogers Centre. In fact, Mookie Betts has a .375 xBA against Gausman in his career over 53 at bats. 

Gausman has an xwOBA of .376 against this Dodgers team, and has just struggled mightily against them in his career. This season, he’s been hit around multiple times already, and he’s been absolutely lit up at home. 

Let’s take the away team with a more concentrated plan to sweep in this series between what was supposed to be two highly-competitive teams. Only one has shown up, and the Blue Jays are 1-7 in the third game of the series so far this year. Let’s hammer the Dodgers. 

PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers ML

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