MLB Bet of the Day | April 23, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 31-32-0, -2.90u
RECAP: Although it felt like we had some of the right reads yesterday in our four MLB bets, alas we came out on bottom again, going 2-2 in our bets for a loss of .20. We’re literally just treading water at MLB of the Day, losing only three units on the season… but eventually, we have to string together some winning days. The Phillies took care of business easily in yesterday’s play, and let’s continue that momentum today. 

April 23rd, 2024

One of my favorite betting sayings ever is “good teams win, great teams cover”. This usually refers to a losing team that still covers the spread. For example, the Los Angeles Lakers last night: great teams cover. BUT, in the MLB, I actually think that the saying should go “good teams win, great teams whomp the crap out of the other team”. Tonight, we’re betting on a whomping. 

The Miami Marlins are in Atlanta for the second game of their series against the Braves, and last night was a slow-burn of a win as the Braves won 3-0 behind great pitching. 

Tonight, the Braves are throwing Max Fried on the mound, and have excelled in game two’s so far this year, going 5-2 overall and 4-2 after a game one win. Fried has held Miami batters in his career to a xwOBA of .278, which is absolutely stellar, and went 6.1 innings and one earned run just 11 days ago. Fried has blow-up ability, but he’s faced some killer offenses so far this year, and his main bright spot was that Miami game – I expect him to feel right at home tonight. 

But what we need to talk about is the Atlanta offense and the opposing pitcher, Trevor Rogers. Rogers has pitched well in spurts this season, missing barrels and causing a whole lot of ground balls. In fact, he last faced the Braves a couple of weeks ago and only allowed two runs on eight hits. But the Braves are the Braves, and those averages will always come back to bite you; Rogers is 0-5 in his last five games, and each loss resulted in a lead of two or more, which is our exact bet tonight. 

Plus, this Atlanta offense is truly a juggernaut. They score over seven runs per nine innings against lefties, and get on base nearly 34% of the time, which is among the league’s highest. Even when we limit those stats to “at home” stats, they still put up nearly six runs per game, and the Marlins score just over two. 

Neither of these teams have super-rested bullpens, but that also works out in the bats’ favor. Which of these two teams’ bats do you trust against pitching that is considered average? Let’s take Atlanta by two in today’s contest. 

PICK: Atlanta Braves -1.5

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