MLB Bet of the Day | April 22, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 29-30-0, -2.70u
RECAP: A day in which we go 1-1, especially on a Sunday when things get weird, is still a good day. The Phillies and Aaron Nola took care of business thanks to his eight-inning performance, and the Cubs blew a gasket early in the game and couldn’t recover from it. Kyle Hendricks basically whiffed on his opportunity to stay on the big league squad, and that’s tough to feel – but we lose .05 units on the day, and that’s alright with me. 

April 22nd, 2024

There’s a real chance that Ranger Suarez is becoming a dark horse Cy Young candidate this year, and Philadelphia is eating for it – through four starts, he’s given up five earned runs, and hasn’t allowed a run in his last fifteen innings on the bump. He’s slated tonight to take on young fireballer Hunter Greene and the Cincinnati Reds tonight in the first game of their series. 

Both of these teams have been absolutely dominant in game ones, going 5-2 through their first seven series’. While the Reds have devoured lefties, they just haven’t faced any lefties worth noting this season; and especially in a place like GAB, where the ball can fly. Those numbers are inflated, but the Phillies are who are the real beneficiaries of playing in this ballpark. 

Against righties, the Phillies are scoring over four runs per nine innings and have an OBP near .300, which bodes well for them in the box; if they’re disciplined, which they have been so far to start the season, then they should be ripe to stay in there and draw walks against the wildcard. Greene walks 10% of batters this season and hasn’t shown to be able to slow down hot offenses. Against a hot offense in the Brewers, he allowed over six runs earlier this year; but against dormant offenses, he dominates. 

And top to bottom, Hunter Greene struggles to get wins. He’s 0-5 in his last five in picking up wins, and for some reason, this Reds offense just doesn’t show up when he’s on the mound.

To top it all off, the Reds are in the fade section of the Sharp Report, and Suarez is a major ground ball pitcher. Especially in Great American, that’s what really matters. Let’s take the Phillies to win this game and take hold of it early on, when Hunter Greene just can’t buy a win lately. Phillies on the moneyline. 

PICK: Philadelphia Phillies ML

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