MLB Bet of the Day | April 21, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 28-29-0, -2.65u
RECAP: Another tough day as the MLB of the Day flounders. We’re still over .500 on our free play of the day, but Friday looked like we were cruising to a win, and then 12 runs were scored in the last four innings. Go figure. We lose a unit on the day, there, a unit on the day yesterday, and all of a sudden we’re back in the hole. April has not been nice to us! 

April 21st, 2024

At some point, we’re going to have to recognize that the Chicago Cubs might be a real contender in the MLB this season, and it’s on the back of their ability to score runs at will, especially at home, where they’ve been dominant this season. And now, the Cubs face the Marlins, who are the worst team in the league, at home, and who dominate the last game of the series so far this season. 

Edward Cabrera, the up-and-coming righty, is on the bump for the Marlins today in what should be a fish-out-of-water situation. Last season, Cabrera was super talented at home, but on the road, it was a completely different story. He was 0-7 with an ERA just below six, with a WHIP of 1.62. Even during the day, he struggled… he allowed a WHIP of 1.67 during day games, and while the Cubs have had some fits with right-handed pitching, I just don’t see a world where Cabrera excels against this hot team. 

The one worry is the pitcher on the other bump, but I believe that there’s evidence for a bounce-back performance. Kyle Hendricks, the only remaining Cub from their World Series team, has had quite the rough start to the season – but the advanced metrics say that he may be alright in the long-term. While the Marlins struggle on the road (3.7 runs per game), Hendricks has yet to allow a team under five runs this season. He allowed seven runs the last time out, and dropped his WHIP to… 2.24. But here’s where my lack of doubt stems from: he doesn’t get hit hard, and he’s gotten his chases this season. The Marlins are second-worst in the league in hard hit percentage, and have the second-worst wOBACON in the league, along with the highest chase percentage in the league. In literally the places where Hendricks has been excelling, the Marlins are the worst team in the league. 

Stats are telling us that Hendricks should be alright today in the rubber match. These Cubs bats are extremely hot, and Cabrera has shown that he struggles on the road historically… and it should be a windy day in the windy city. Let’s take the Cubs to win this game. Sharp App gives the Cubs a 72% chance to win this game... we'll take that. 

PICK: Chicago Cubs ML 

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