MLB Bet of the Day | April 19, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 26-25-0, -0.52u
RECAP: Two days ago was super lucky and then super sucky, as we hit bangers on a +100 Yankees play and a +128 Rangers play, but then died down when the Oakland game went over 8.5 by literally one run, when we had the under. All in all, we gain 1.28 units on the day and climb back out, as we are essentially one win away from getting out of the negative on this MLB season. We’re still due to go on a massive run like we always do, just wondering when it’s going to come. 

April 19th, 2024

I think that, top to bottom, one of my favorite teams of the year are the Royals. There’s just so much fun about them – and I am in love with their pitching staff, including starting pitcher Alec Marsh. 

Marsh hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in the world, but the advanced metrics show that he’s getting screwed in some capacities. He doesn’t walk many batters and doesn’t connect to barrels too often, and has a killer offspeed pitch that is devastating. The problem is that batters don’t chase and they don’t strike out, but that’s what you’re going to get against good teams like their opponent today, so it may be moot. And that’s why we’ve got flexibility in our play. 

The opponents are the Baltimore Orioles, who are red-hot and rested. They’re pitching Dean Kremer, who was incredible last season, as he turned games into unders all the time. While he was lit up last game, I anticipate him to bounce back, as this total anticipates the O’s to be able to keep the runs in the ballpark tonight – especially because this offense they’re playing is HOT at home. Kremer should be able to limit them to under four runs.

But here’s my biggest gripe with the line that Vegas has put out: if we’re looking at the numbers, Kansas City is averaging over six runs at home against righties. Baltimore is averaging over six runs on the road against righties as well – which means that this line should actually be higher than it is, in my opinion. 

These bullpens are pretty solid, and I’d bet that these starters each go five+ innings to put their teams in a position to win. There’s a reason why this line is lower than anticipated, and it’s because these pitchers just match up very well against these offenses - and there’s no doubt in my mind that they should be able to shut them down. Let’s tag the under in this game, and we’re buying the hook for -130. 

PICK: Baltimore/Kansas City under 9.5

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