MLB Bet of the Day | April 17, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 24-24-0, -1.80u
RECAP: Our MLB of the Day was null and void yesterday as we grabbed the Royals to win by two, but the weather in Chicago had other plans as the game was postponed to today. I also had the under in the Boston game, but that game actually featured a million runs, so we go down about a unit on the day in the MLB. Once again, we have quite a hole to climb out of, but it could start today. 

April 17th, 2024

The New York Yankees, in my opinion, have all of the components to be the world champions this year… they’ve just got some quiet bats right now, including star Aaron Judge, who is striking out at Elly De La Cruz-rates to begin the season. Today they’re looking to avoid a sweep against the divisional rival Blue Jays, who are throwing once-ace Kevin Gausman. 

Gausman once had Cy Young stuff, but he’s tapered off this season, especially in the last two contests he’s pitched in. His hard hit rate is at a whopping 50%, and he’s in the seventh percentile on average exit velocity, which means that his stuff is getting hit incredibly hard on contact, which is just about the worst thing possible for a pitcher. Against this Yankees lineup, we’re seeing some interesting numbers: he’s faced them 200 times, and has held them to an average .251 batting average – but his xBA is around .300, which is among the highest in the league against one team with that amount of plate appearances. He SHOULD struggle against this Yankees lineup, especially because his stuff isn’t there yet this season. 

And listen, Marcus Stroman is one of the most competitive pitchers in the big leagues. Despite being hit around a little bit (he was unlucky as well) in the last game he pitched, he’s dominated this Jays lineup throughout his career, holding them to an xBA of .222 and an xwOBA of .285, among the best in the league. 
Yesterday, the Jays used all of their solid bullpen arms to secure the win after Kikuchi’s masterful start, and so they may look to the back end of their bullpen if Gaus gets crushed – or even hit around a little bit. I don’t expect the Yankees lineup to fully wake up in one game - that’s unrealistic - but I do expect them to not get swept, and to avoid taking their fourth loss in a row. 

Let’s back the away team in this divisional battle, because there’s literally nothing I love more than to fade home dogs (and rookie pitchers, but that’s yesterday’s story). The Yankees should win this one, and avoid the sweep. 

PICK: New York Yankees ML

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